全球平均海平面偶然加速的近期和未来表现

IF 0.9 Q4 REMOTE SENSING Journal of Geodetic Science Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1515/jogs-2020-0115
H. Iz, C. Shum
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引用次数: 4

摘要

摘要:本文采用由趋势、随机均匀加速度和随机误差模型组成的运动学模型,分析了1993 - 2018年全球平均卫星测高平均海平面时间序列及其未来25年的表现。方差分析结果表明,该模式解释了全球平均海平面总变化的71.7%,其中70.6%是由长期趋势引起的,1.07%是由偶然的均匀加速引起的。其余28.3%的未解释变化是由随机误差引起的,随机误差主要是由海洋和大气随时间变化驱动的一阶自回归过程。这些数字表明全球平均海平面异常的未来表现会有更多的起伏和跳跃,正如本研究中使用的提前一步预测器所示。我们的研究结果表明,多数随机误差将进一步混淆和负面影响已发表的全球海平面均匀加速估计的确定性,以及在地球日益变暖的情况下的预测。
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Recent and future manifestations of a contingent global mean sea level acceleration
Abstract We analyzed globally averaged satellite altimetry mean sea level time series during 1993 – 2018 and their future manifestations for the following 25 years using a kinematic model, which consists of a trend, a contingent uniform acceleration, and a random error model. The analysis of variance results shows that the model explains 71.7% of the total variation in global mean sea level for which 70.6% is by the secular trend, and 1.07% is due to a contingent uniform acceleration. The remaining 28.3% unexplained variation is due to the random errors, which are dominated by a first order autoregressive process driven mostly by oceanic and atmospheric variations over time. These numbers indicate more bumps and jumps for the future manifestations of the global mean sea level anomalies as illustrated using a one-step ahead predictor in this study. Our findings suggest preponderant random errors are poised to further confound and negatively impact the certitude of published estimates of the uniform global sea level acceleration as well as its prediction under an increasingly warmer Earth.
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来源期刊
Journal of Geodetic Science
Journal of Geodetic Science REMOTE SENSING-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
3
审稿时长
14 weeks
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