Seeking asylum in Denmark: analysis of determinants in 2005–2015

ABSTRACT The paper investigates the factors influencing the number of asylum applications lodged in Denmark. We conduct an analysis of 190 countries of origin over the years 2005–2015. Using panel data and bilaterally expressed variables, we apply the tobit model and the negative binomial regression method for all potential countries of origin as well as for developing countries only. Our results show that among the most significant determinants of the number of asylum applications in Denmark belong the level of political stability and absence of violence, stock of immigrants, extent of freedom, as well as the distance between an origin country and Denmark. When we test these factors under the condition of a violent conflict in countries or origin, we find that their effects decrease. While for some variables, this decline is substantial, suggesting the primary role of conflicts among the push factors, some others (such as distance) remain highly significant.