Estimation of the Duration of Covid-19 Epidemic in a Single Country, with or without Vaccinations. The Case of Bulgaria and Germany

In the present paper we develop a methodology for the estimation of the duration of the Epidemic of Covid-19 in a single country, with or without vaccinations, accounting for different scenarios. Our methodology is based on a specific SEIR model, called ATVBG-SEIR model, which is explained in detail. The results are especially interesting for vaccination-free society since they show what the Covid-19 mortality would be in different scenarios. We include vaccinations in the model which are carried out according to a vaccination plan provided on a daily basis. The main constraint to be accounted by the methodology is the number of Intensive Care Units (ICU) reserved for Covid-19 patients (they are e.g. about 1100 in Bulgaria, about 8000 in Germany, etc.). A Web-based Lockdown Scenarios Tool has been developed, based on the present methodology, which is available at www.atvbg-seir.eu. Results in the paper are demonstrating the efficiency of the tool by applying it to Covid-19 data from Bulgaria and Germany, while in the tool we provide online models for Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. © 2021 Academic Publishing House. All rights reserved.