过滤掉预期股息和预期回报

IF 0.9 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Quarterly Journal of Finance Pub Date : 2012-11-11 DOI:10.1142/S2010139212500127
O. Rytchkov
{"title":"过滤掉预期股息和预期回报","authors":"O. Rytchkov","doi":"10.1142/S2010139212500127","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper applies a state space approach to the analysis of stock return predictability. It acknowledges that expected returns and expected dividends are unobservable and uses the Kalman filter to extract them from the observed history of realized dividends and returns. The suggested approach explicitly takes into account the time variation in expected dividend growth rates and exploits the present value relation. The obtained predictors for future returns are robust to structural breaks in the means of expected dividends and returns and more efficient than the dividend–price ratio. The likelihood ratio test reliably rejects the hypothesis of constant expected returns.","PeriodicalId":45339,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2012-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"54","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Filtering Out Expected Dividends and Expected Returns\",\"authors\":\"O. Rytchkov\",\"doi\":\"10.1142/S2010139212500127\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper applies a state space approach to the analysis of stock return predictability. It acknowledges that expected returns and expected dividends are unobservable and uses the Kalman filter to extract them from the observed history of realized dividends and returns. The suggested approach explicitly takes into account the time variation in expected dividend growth rates and exploits the present value relation. The obtained predictors for future returns are robust to structural breaks in the means of expected dividends and returns and more efficient than the dividend–price ratio. The likelihood ratio test reliably rejects the hypothesis of constant expected returns.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45339,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Quarterly Journal of Finance\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2012-11-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"54\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Quarterly Journal of Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010139212500127\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quarterly Journal of Finance","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010139212500127","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 54

摘要

本文将状态空间方法应用于股票收益可预测性分析。它承认预期收益和预期股息是不可观察的,并使用卡尔曼滤波器从观察到的已实现股息和回报的历史中提取它们。建议的方法明确考虑了预期股息增长率的时间变化,并利用了现值关系。所得的未来收益预测因子对预期股息和收益的结构性断裂具有鲁棒性,并且比股息价格比更有效。似然比检验可靠地拒绝了期望收益不变的假设。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Filtering Out Expected Dividends and Expected Returns
This paper applies a state space approach to the analysis of stock return predictability. It acknowledges that expected returns and expected dividends are unobservable and uses the Kalman filter to extract them from the observed history of realized dividends and returns. The suggested approach explicitly takes into account the time variation in expected dividend growth rates and exploits the present value relation. The obtained predictors for future returns are robust to structural breaks in the means of expected dividends and returns and more efficient than the dividend–price ratio. The likelihood ratio test reliably rejects the hypothesis of constant expected returns.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Quarterly Journal of Finance
Quarterly Journal of Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: The Quarterly Journal of Finance publishes high-quality papers in all areas of finance, including corporate finance, asset pricing, financial econometrics, international finance, macro-finance, behavioral finance, banking and financial intermediation, capital markets, risk management and insurance, derivatives, quantitative finance, corporate governance and compensation, investments and entrepreneurial finance.
期刊最新文献
Trust and Lending: An Experimental Study Non-Cognitive Skills at the Time of COVID-19: An Experiment with Professional Traders and Students Managing Climate Change Risks: Sea-Level Rise and Mergers and Acquisitions The Impact of Role Models on Women’s Self-Selection into Competitive Environments Futures Replication and the Law of One Futures Price
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1