Using Survival Analysis to Identify Populations of Learners at Risk of Withdrawal: Conceptualization and Impact of Demographics

High dropout rates constitute a major concern for higher education institutions, due to their economic and academic impact. The problem is particularly relevant for institutions offering online courses, where withdrawal ratios are reported to be higher. Both the impact and these high rates motivate the implementation of interventions oriented to reduce course withdrawal and overall institutional dropout. In this paper, we address the identification of populations of learners at risk of withdrawing from higher education online courses. This identification is oriented to design interventions and is carried out using survival analysis. We demonstrate that the method’s longitudinal approach is particularly suited for this purpose and provides a clear view of risk differences among learner populations. Additionally, the method quantifies the impact of underlying factors, either alone or in combination. Our practical implementation used an open dataset provided by The Open University. It includes data from more than 30,000 students enrolled in different courses. We conclude that low-income students and those who report a disability comprise risk groups and are thus feasible intervention targets. The survival curves also reveal differences among courses and show the detrimental effect of early dropout on low-income students, worsened throughout the course for disabled students. Intervention strategies are proposed as a result of these findings. Extending the entire refund period and giving greater academic support to students who report disability are two proposed strategies for reducing course withdrawal.