利用极限学习机预测棕榈油产量

Yudi Triyanto, Ronal Watrianthos, Pristiyono, Yusmaidar Sepriani, K. Rizal
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引用次数: 4

摘要

2018年印尼棕榈油(CPO)总产量达到4390万吨,土地面积为1230万公顷。然而,每个月仍有许多公司在预测棕榈油产量方面存在问题。预测产量的问题可以通过人工神经网络领域的计算方法,即极限学习机(ELM)方法来解决。该方法可以解决线性和非线性数据问题,并且在预测油棕产量方面提供了比其他方法更好的平均计算。使用的数据是PT Indo棕榈油Labuhan Batu的棕榈油生产数据,2017-2018年期间共297个。而使用的参数是种植年龄、土地面积、树木数量和产量。最佳隐藏神经元测试结果为13,具有2个技术数据特征,训练数据模式为模式1。平均MAPE值为20.1%,最快的计算时间是使用隐藏神经元的数量2。因此,根据测试结果,该方法的预测模型具有相当好的性能,因为MAPE值在20% -50%的范围内。
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Palm Oil Prediction Production Using Extreme Learning Machine
The total production of Indonesian palm oil (CPO) in 2018 reached 43.9 million tons, with a land area of 12.3 million hectares.However, every month there are still many companies that have problems in predicting palm oil production. Problems in predicting thisproduction can be solved by calculation methods in the field of artificial neural networks, namely the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)method. This method can solve linear and non-linear data problems and provide better average computation compared to other methods inpredicting oil palm production. The data used is palm oil production data at PT Indo Palm Oil Labuhan Batu with a total of 297 in the period2017-2018. While the parameters used are planting age, land area, number of trees, and yields. The results of the best-hidden neuron testare 13 with 2 technical data features and the training data pattern is pattern 1. The average MAPE value is 20.1% with the fastestcomputing time is the use of the number of hidden neurons 2. So based on the test results, the method ELM has a predictive model withquite good performance because the MAPE value is in the range of 20% -50%.
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