Refuse composition projections and recycling technology

MSW composition in the UK has changed significantly since detailed records were initiated in the 1930's and 1940's. While composition changes do not materially affect waste disposal by landfill and incineration, there is a potential adverse effect on the efficiency and costs of solid waste recycling operations such as RDF production. No medium- to long-term composition projections have been found, and this paper presents the first results from collation and time trend analysis of U.K. MSW compositions. S-curves are generally found to give the most acceptable correlations both in terms of goodness of fit and suitability for long-term forecasting. Refuse compositions, quantities and heating values are forecast up to 50 years ahead. In such a time period solid-waste management techniques are likely to reorientate towards recycling rather than disposal. Speculative and provocative forecasts of waste management techniques up to 100 years ahead are included to attract attention to the opportunities offered in this sector.