一种基于贝叶斯网络的不确定性模型(BNUM)来分析和预测给定博弈场景下的下一步最优走法

V. Jagtap, P. Kulkarni
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摘要

随着机器学习的出现,它被用于各种应用,如语音识别、图像识别、序列建模等。序列建模是一种基于提供的历史数据输入生成结果序列的应用。这些序列在游戏或运动等不确定环境中相当有效。在游戏或运动中,有一个由多个玩家选择的移动序列。从简单到复杂的游戏都存在统计学上的不确定性。例如,在下棋时,一个简单的统计建模的不确定性就足以选择下一个可能。这种移动选择取决于棋子或兵的可用自由空间。网球、板球等运动需要更复杂的不确定性建模设计,以便进行下一步选择。如果下一步选择的不确定性相当小,贝叶斯网络模型就会起作用。如果在训练任何机器学习或深度学习模型之前包含所有可能的移动,那么基于贝叶斯网络的模型将是最佳拟合的。这将通过使用Context-Li模型来实现。提出的基于贝叶斯网络的不确定性模型(BNUM)用于纳入不确定性,以便下一步行动的选择。BNUM是一个多变量、多层次的关联,在学习中孕育不确定性。它有助于在不确定的游戏环境中预测下一步行动。不同的案例研究被纳入验证假设,结果是上下文图中表示的一系列动作。
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A bayesian network-based uncertainty modeling (BNUM) to analyze and predict next optimal moves in given game scenario
As machine learning emerged, it is being used in a variety of applications like speech recognition, image recognition, sequence modeling, etc., Sequence modeling is one type of application where resultant sequences are generated based on historical data inputs provided. These sequences are fairly work in an uncertain environment like games or sports. In the case of a game or a sport, there is a sequence of moves selected by multiple players. There is a statistical uncertainty observed for simple to more complex games. For example, while playing chess, a simple statistical modeled uncertainty would be enough to choose the next possible. This move selection is dependent on available free spaces of pieces or pawns. The sports like tennis, cricket, and other games need a more complex design for uncertainty modeling for next move selection. A Bayesian Network model will work if there is fairly less uncertainty in the selection of the next move. A Bayesian Network-based model will be best fitted if all possible moves are included before training any machine learning or deep learning model. This will be achieved with the usage of the Context-Li model. The proposed Bayesian Network-based Uncertainty Modeling (BNUM) is used to incorporate uncertainty, for next move selection. BNUM is a multi-variable, multi-level association to incubate uncertainty in learning. It helps to predict the next move in an uncertain gaming environment. Different case studies are incorporated to verify the hypothesis and the results are a sequence of moves represented in the context graph.
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