Natural Disasters and the Effect of Celerity on Criminal Case Outcomes: A Natural Experiment in Kings County

Abstract Using case-level data, this study tests whether an increase in average crime-to-disposition time for felony arrests affects case outcomes. These outcomes are the likelihood of no-conviction, the likelihood of downgrading during the case disposition process (regardless of whether the case resulted in a conviction or no conviction), and the likelihood of an incarceration sentence. On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy produced extreme weather conditions in the greater New York City area, including Kings County. For felonies committed during the two-week period (October 28, 2012–November 10, 2012), Kings County experienced, on average, a 20.2% increase (34.3 days) in crime-to-disposition time. This increase provides an instrumental variable (IV) to test the effect of crime-to-disposition time on criminal case outcomes. Neither the hurricane aftermath nor a crime-to-disposition delay had any significant effect on the likelihood of incarceration, the likelihood of no-conviction, or the likelihood of downgrading. As a theoretical matter, the IV estimates suggest that reduced celerity (operationalized by a 20% increase in case processing time) does not affect the severity of punishment (operationalized by incarceration), the certainty of punishment (operationalized by the likelihood of no-conviction), or case processing complexity (operationalized by the likelihood of downgrading).