尼日利亚雨养农民对气候变化的适应策略

A. Towolawi
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摘要

如果没有有效的适应战略,气候变化将使粮食系统面临风险。该研究通过对1600份测试前问卷进行逐步多元回归分析,调查了尼日利亚四个州(江户、翁多、贝努埃和尼日尔)农民的人口统计(教育、年龄和性别)对适应战略的12个重要因素的影响。这些因素包括:实践年数(YoP)、农场规模(FS)、农产品销售地点(PSP)、家庭劳动力使用(UFL)、雇佣劳动力使用(UHL)、交通状况(TS)、非农业活动多样化(DINA)、稀缺资源替代(SSR)、政府农业推广服务(GAES)、气候信息意识(ACI)、农业投入获取(AFI)和信贷服务获取(ACS)。模型在贝努埃州输入UFL、PSP和ACI,在埃多州输入YoP、UHL、SSR和TS,在尼日尔州输入UFL、PSP、DINA、ACS、AFI、UHL和SSR,在昂多州输入UFL和ACS。各模型的Durbi-Watson值在贝努埃州的1.568 ~尼日尔州的1.905之间,呈正自相关。方差分析表明,f检验对每个州的模型都非常显著,并解释了农民人口统计数据影响的显著差异。公差> 0.1和可变膨胀系数< 10表明存在多重共线性,变量高度相关。总之,应对气候变化影响的适应策略是由农民的人口结构共同决定的。
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Adaptation Strategies of Rain-fed Farmers to Climate Change in Nigeria
Climate change puts food system at risk if there are no effective adaptation strategies. The study investigated influence of farmers' demographics (education, age and gender) on twelve considerable factors for adaptation strategies across four (Edo, Ondo, Benue and Niger) States in Nigeria by subjecting 1600 copies of pretest questionnaire to stepwise multiple regression analysis. The factors are Years of Practice (YoP), Farm Size, (FS), Places of Selling Produce (PSP), Use of Family as Labour (UFL), Use of Hired Labour (UHL), Transportation Situation (TS), Diversification into Non-farming Activities (DINA), Substitutions of Scarce Resources (SSR), Government Agriculture Extension Services (GAES), Awareness of Climate Information (ACI), Access to Farm Input (AFI), and Access to Credit Services (ACS). The model entered UFL, PSP and ACI in Benue State, YoP, UHL, SSR, and TS in Edo State, UFL, PSP, DINA, ACS, AFI, UHL and SSR in Niger State, and UFL and ACS in Ondo State. The Durbi-Watson values of all the models were ranged from 1.568 in Benue State to 1.905 in Niger State, indicating positive autocorrelation. The ANOVA indicated that F-test was highly significant for each State’s model and explained a significant variation in the influence of farmers’ demographics. Tolerance > 0.1 and Variable Inflation Factor < 10 showing there was multicollinearity and the variables were highly correlated. In conclusion, the adaptation strategies to tackle climate change effects are collectively determined by the farmers’ demographics.
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