A Spatially-Explicit Scenario for Achieving “Wise Shrink” Toward Eco-Urbanism

In order to achieve a sustainable and resilient eco-urbanism, we propose a “Wise Shrink” approach grounded on a consideration of trade-offs and synergies between city compaction and disaster risks. The objective of this study is to show the possibility of such scenarios in the Tokyo metropolitan area using a newly developed spatially-explicit urban land-use model (SULM). Here, a scenario that considers both city compaction and disaster risk reduction (Wise Shrink) is compared with a city compaction scenario without disaster risk reduction (Compact City) and a business-as-usual scenario (BAU). The results show that increasing green areas under the Compact City scenario would facilitate adaptation to climate change risks. However, there exist trade-offs for flooding and other risks depending on the location of the compaction. By harmonizing the risks, this study suggests a possible Wise-Shrink approach for achieving sustainable and resilient eco-urbanism.