基于SIR的霍乱传播数学模型:最优控制

N. Hidayati, E. R. Sari, N. Waryanto
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引用次数: 2

摘要

霍乱弧菌是霍乱的病因。霍乱通过人群中受感染个体的粪便传播。从数学的角度来看,这个问题可以纳入考虑出生率的易感-感染-恢复(SIR)数学模型。由于如果不立即治疗,暴发很容易传播,因此有必要通过接种疫苗控制易感人群。使用的疫苗是口服霍乱弧菌。因此,本研究的目的是建立无疫苗接种的霍乱传播模型,分析模型在平衡点附近的稳定性,形成有疫苗接种控制的霍乱传播模型,并描述数值模型完成的模拟结果。通过对模型平衡点稳定性的分析,表明如果接触率小于出生率和恢复率之和,霍乱将随着时间的推移而消失。如果接触率大于出生率和恢复率的总和,那么霍乱仍然存在,或者换句话说,这种疾病仍然可以传播。由于传播是地方性的,需要对易感个体群体进行最佳控制,在这种情况下,通过接种疫苗进行控制,使易感个体群体达到最小,而恢复个体群体增加。
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Mathematical model of cholera spread based on SIR: Optimal control
The bacterium Vibrio cholerae is the cause of cholera. Cholera is spread through the feces of an infected individual in a population. From a mathematical point of view, this problem can be brought into a mathematical model in the form of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), which considers the birth rate. Because outbreaks that occur easily spread if not treated immediately, it is necessary to control the susceptible individual population by vaccination. The vaccine used is Oral Vibrio cholera. For this reason, the purposes of this study were to establish a model for the spread of cholera without vaccination, analyze the stability of the model around the equili­brium point, form a model for the spread of cholera with vaccination control, and describe the simulation results of numerical model completion. Based on the analysis of the stability of the equilibrium point of the model, it indicates that if the contact rate is smaller than the sum of the birth rate and the recovery rate, cholera will disappear over time. If the contact rate is grea­ter than the sum of the birth rate and the recovery rate, then cholera is still present, or in other words, the disease can still spread. Because the spread is endemic, optimal control of the popu­lation of susceptible individuals is needed, in this case, control by vaccination, so that the popu­lation of susceptible individuals becomes minimum and the population of recovered indivi­duals increases.
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