媒体报道对分数阶SIR流行病模型的影响

C. Maji
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摘要

在这项工作中,我们制定并分析了传染病(如SARS、2019-nCoV和COVID-19)关于媒介效应的分数阶流行模型。该模型基于经典的易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模型。讨论了正解、有界解和非负解的基本性质。利用新一代矩阵法计算了系统的基本繁殖数[公式:见文],可以看出,如果[公式:见文],则无病平衡是局部和全局渐近稳定的,否则是不稳定的。利用Lambert W函数建立了局部平衡点的存在性。已经导出了全球稳定的条件。数值模拟表明,分数阶和介质对系统动力学有很大的影响。当介质冲击足够强时,分数阶系统稳定振荡。
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Impact of media coverage on a fractional-order SIR epidemic model
In this work, we formulated and analyzed a fractional-order epidemic model of infectious disease (such as SARS, 2019-nCoV and COVID-19) concerning media effect. The model is based on classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Basic properties regarding positivity, boundedness and non-negative solutions are discussed. Basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the system has been calculated using next-generation matrix method and it is seen that the disease-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text], otherwise unstable. The existence of endemic equilibrium point is established using the Lambert W function. The condition for global stability has been derived. Numerical simulation suggests that fractional order and media have a large effect on our system dynamics. When media impact is stronger enough, our fractional-order system stabilizes the oscillation.
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