经济危机会导致比特币交易吗?

IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Review of Behavioral Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-05 DOI:10.1108/rbf-02-2022-0048
Jinsha Zhao
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引用次数: 3

摘要

目的通过考察货币价格、收益与比特币交易量之间的关系,为比特币的避险属性提供新的证据。设计/方法/方法使用来自个人对个人(p2p)交易所的独特数据集来调查比特币交易量和货币价格之间的关系。货币回报用于识别当地经济危机,受危机影响的8种货币分别是委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔(VES)、伊朗里亚尔(IRR)、乌克兰格里夫纳(UAH)、阿根廷比索(ARS)、埃及镑(EGP)、尼日利亚奈拉(NGN)、土耳其里拉(TRY)和哈萨克斯坦滕戈(KZT)。研究结果表明,地方经济危机与比特币交易的增加呈正相关。交易量与货币价值(和回报)呈负相关,表明比特币的交易量增加,货币价格走低,货币贬值。这一结果不仅适用于受危机影响的货币,也适用于发达经济体的货币。格兰杰因果检验也强化了负相关的结果。这一发现表明,在当地市场危机期间,当资本从国内市场流向比特币时,出现了某种形式的避险行为,从而加强了比特币的对冲资产地位。然而,在新冠疫情开始后,全球总交易量有所下降,这表明比特币仍被视为一种投机性资产。总的来说,研究结果表明,比特币是一种对冲资产,可以防止当地货币贬值,但不是全球危机的避险资产。
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Do economic crises cause trading in Bitcoin?
PurposeThe paper provides new evidence for Bitcoin’s safe-haven property by examining the relationship between currency price, return and Bitcoin trading volume.Design/methodology/approachA unique dataset from a person-to-person (p2p) exchange is used to investigate association between Bitcoin trading volume and currency prices. Currency returns are used to identify local economic crises, the 8 crisis affected currencies are Venezuela Bolivar (VES), Iranian Rial (IRR), Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH), Argentine Peso (ARS), Egyptian Pound (EGP), Nigerian Naira (NGN), Turkish Lira (TRY) and Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT).FindingsThe paper demonstrates that local economic crises are positively associated with increased Bitcoin trading. There is a negative association between trading volume and currency value (and return), suggesting low currency price and currency depreciation are accompanied with increased Bitcoin trading. The results not only hold for the crisis affected currencies but also currencies of advanced economies. Granger causality test also reinforces the negative association results.Originality/valueThe finding indicates some forms of flight-to-safety have occurred during local market crises when capital flight from domestic markets to Bitcoin, strengthening Bitcoin’s hedging asset status. However, total global trading volume declines after the start of the COVID pandemic, suggesting that Bitcoin is still regarded as a speculative asset. Overall, the findings show that Bitcoin is a hedging asset to protect against local currency depreciation, but not a safe-haven asset for the global crisis.
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来源期刊
Review of Behavioral Finance
Review of Behavioral Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
44
期刊介绍: Review of Behavioral Finance publishes high quality original peer-reviewed articles in the area of behavioural finance. The RBF focus is on Behavioural Finance but with a very broad lens looking at how the behavioural attributes of the decision makers influence the financial structure of a company, investors’ portfolios, and the functioning of financial markets. High quality empirical, experimental and/or theoretical research articles as well as well executed literature review articles are considered for publication in the journal.
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