Development of Models for Predicting the Nickel Exchange Price with the Necessary Accuracy for Metal Trading Companies

The state of the world market of metals is one of the main indicators of the global economy state as a whole, as it is a raw material that is actively used in the information and communication technologies. This explains the urgency of the challenges companies in this sector are facing. One of these is the prediction of metal prices to make the right decisions in the industry. The article aims to en light a strategy, which implies the necessary steps for forecasting and presents a search for a suitable forecasting model, the accuracy of which satisfies the goals of steel trading companies. Firstly, the authors analyze the forecast and its accuracy based on common statistical forecasting models, such as the pair regression equation or a linear function for a time series, models reduced to the linear ones, namely, the polynomials of 2, 3 and 4 degrees, etc. Further, the author presents a quality criterion of forecasting for stock metals prices to support the decisions made by the steel trader. It is this criterion that proved the need to develop the most accurate forecasting models, which was actually done. New models are based on both technical and fundamental analysis of stock quotes of metals, and have the accuracy necessary to be applied in practice by steel trading companies to trade successfully.