First exhaustive distribution and habitat modelling of Morimus asper (Sulzer, 1776) sensu lato (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae) in Bulgaria

Although Morimus asper, in particular the ssp. funereus, is considered as widespread throughout Bulgaria, a current national mapping of the species is missing. Thus, here we present the first exhaustive study on the distribution of M. asper in Bulgaria. Our research combined 967 georeferenced presence records from scientific publications, from the museum collection of the National Museum of Natural History-BAS, as well as authors’ and citizen scientists’ field observations. An Ecological Niche Model (ENM) was generated using software MaxEnt to identify the potential distribution of the species based on niche suitability. The potentially suitable area for the species was 26% of Bulgaria (29 059 km2). The main predictor variables in M. asper’s ENM assessed by а Jackknife test were the distance to mixed Fagus-Carpinus forests, the mean forest age, the mean tree height, the maximal temperature during the hottest month and the altitude. The percentage contribution to the model of the first two variables was also the largest – respectively 40% and 11%. The remaining variables contributed less than 10% each. Furthermore, we recommend some changes to the current species monitoring methodology to the National Biodiversity Monitoring System.