论凯恩斯宏观经济学中的不确定性与德国秩序理论

R. Richter
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摘要

关于凯恩斯的争论掩盖了他打算用一种考虑不确定性事实的方法取代经典经济理论的意图,这种方法的意义是“没有科学依据来形成任何可计算的概率”。我们根本不知道”(凯恩斯1937,第214页)。凯恩斯考虑到了这一点,用心理上合理的行为假设取代了(新)古典的完美理性优化行为假设。至于其他方面,他坚持“宏观经济”意义上的新古典主义模型。后来基于宏观经济学微观基础的发展完全忽视了凯恩斯主义的不确定性问题。考虑到这种不确定性,凯恩斯主义者别无选择,只能接受大卫·休谟(David Hume)提出的更古老的社会控制风格,这种风格也被德国的系统理论(ordnungstheory)所应用——凯恩斯主义者没有理由抛弃德国的秩序理论。
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On Uncertainty in Keynesian Macroeconomics and German Ordnungstheorie
The debate on Keynes glossed over his intention to replace classical economic theory by an approach considering the fact of uncertainty in the sense of “there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know” (Keynes 1937, p. 214). Keynes takes this into account by replacing the (neo-)classical assumption of perfect rational optimizing behavior by psychologically justified behavioral assumptions. As for the rest, he hangs on to the neoclassical model in a “macroeconomic” sense. Later developments based on the micro foundations of macroeconomics disregard the Keynesian uncertainty problem entirely. Given that uncertainty, Keynesians have not much choice but to accept the older social control style of David Hume, also applied by German Ordnungstheorie (system theory) - and there are no reasons for Keynesians to turn their backs on German Ordnungstheorie.
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来源期刊
Journal of Contextual Economics-Schmollers Jahrbuch
Journal of Contextual Economics-Schmollers Jahrbuch Social Sciences-Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
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