大学篮球比赛中主队获胜概率的贝叶斯估计

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-04-25 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2021-0086

Jason Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要提出了两种新的贝叶斯方法来估计和预测NCAA男子大学篮球甲级联赛中主队获胜概率。第一种方法有一个先验，调整为铅差和时间流逝的函数。第二种方法是第一种方法的调整版本，其中调整是贝叶斯估计器与时间加权赛前获胜概率的线性组合。将所提出的方法与现有方法进行了比较，表明新方法在估计和预测方面与现有方法具有竞争力或优于现有方法。该实用程序通过2012/2013至2019/2020 NCAA一级男子篮球赛季的应用程序进行了说明。

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Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball

Abstract Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities in Division I NCAA men’s college basketball are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pregame win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods are competitive with or outperform existing methods for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2012/2013 through the 2019/2020 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball seasons.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.