控制和可能消除拉沙热的流行病模型

IF 0.7 Q2 MATHEMATICS Tamkang Journal of Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI:10.5556/j.tkjm.55.2024.5031
A. Ayoade, N. Nyerere, M. Ibrahim
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引用次数: 1

摘要

拉沙热是一种致命的病毒性疾病,其潜伏期为6至21天,大约80%的拉沙病毒感染是无症状的。建立了一个确定性模型,以量化在隔离和治疗无症状和有症状的隔离人群下疾病的传播动态,以便有效管理和可能消除疾病。模型的解是正的,有界的。进行了平衡分析,导出了无病平衡和地方性平衡。还得到了疾病消除的阈值R_{0}$,并用于导出平衡稳定性存在的条件。该数量还用于检验模型参数对疾病传播和减少的敏感性。采用一组现实值作为模型参数,对理论分析和定量分析进行补充,以显示隔离和治疗对拉沙热传播和病死率的影响。定量研究结果表明,随着越来越多的暴露者被发现并隔离治疗,拉沙热的死亡率和感染率持续下降。因此,该研究表明,为根除或遏制拉沙热传播而采取的任何措施都应包括发现和隔离接触者,以便及时治疗。
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An epidemic model for control and possible elimination of Lassa fever
Lassa fever is a deadly viral disease whose incubation period ranges from six to twenty-one days and about eighty percent of Lassa virus infection is asymptomatic. A deterministic model was formulated to quantify the transmission dynamics of the disease under isolation and treatment of the isolated asymptomatic and symptomatic humans for effective management and possible elimination of the disease. The solutions of the model were shown to be positive and bounded. Equilibrium analysis was conducted and both the disease-free and the endemic equilibria were derived. The threshold quantity for disease elimination , $R_{0}$ , was also obtained and used to derive conditions for the existence of stability of the eqilibria. The quantity was also employed to examine the sensitivity of the model parameters to disease propagation and reduction. The theoretical analysis was then complemented with the quantitative analysis by adopting a set of realistic values for the model parameters in order to show the effect of isolation and treatment on the spread and fatality of Lassa fever. Results from the quantitative study showed that death and infection from Lassa fever fell continuously as more and more exposed individuals were detected and isolated for treatment. The study therefore suggested that any measure taken to eradicate or curtail Lassa fever spread should include detection and isolation of the exposed humans for prompt treatments.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
11
期刊介绍: To promote research interactions between local and overseas researchers, the Department has been publishing an international mathematics journal, the Tamkang Journal of Mathematics. The journal started as a biannual journal in 1970 and is devoted to high-quality original research papers in pure and applied mathematics. In 1985 it has become a quarterly journal. The four issues are out for distribution at the end of March, June, September and December. The articles published in Tamkang Journal of Mathematics cover diverse mathematical disciplines. Submission of papers comes from all over the world. All articles are subjected to peer review from an international pool of referees.
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