地震灾害系统分析与评价的元综合模式

Jiu-ping XU, Yi LU
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引用次数: 67

摘要

地震灾害是典型的大型开放复杂系统。本文从框架、运动、时空三个方面分析了该系统的结构特点。讨论了其开放性、复杂性、高维性、不确定性和突发性等整体特征。在讨论地震灾害系统组成、要素和影响因素的基础上,构建了由专家系统、机器系统和知识系统组成的地震灾害综合分析车间,并设计了地震灾害综合分析流程,具体步骤如下:从专家经验和数据统计入手,获得感性认知,然后建立模型,达到理性认知,再通过计算机运算重新实践,最终通过专家评估、数据处理、模型修正,达到认知目标。通过对已知地震的分析与评价,发现地震危险性、区域灾害承载力、地震基本信息、灾害影响范围、地质环境安全、资源环境承载力、经济影响、社会影响、减灾效益是地震灾害评价的基本内容。构建了地震灾害系统综合评价框架和基于综合评价体系的“人、机、方法、技术、数据”体系。
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Meta-Synthesis Pattern of Analysis and Assessment of Earthquake Disaster System

Earthquake disasters are typical giant open complex systems. In this article, the system analyzes the structure features from its framework, motion, and space-time. Its entirety characteristics' such as open, complexity, high dimension, uncertainty and emergence, are discussed. Based on the discussion of the earthquake disaster system's components, elements and influencing factors, the Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering, which is composed of a specialist system, a machine system, and a knowledge system, is constructed to analyze earthquake disaster, and then designs the meta-synthesis analyzing processes, with the following steps: starting from experts' experience and data statistics to obtain perceptual cognition, after that, building models to reach rational cognition, and then, re-practicing through computer operation, eventually, via experts' assessment, data processing, and the modifying model to achieve goals on recognition. Based on the analysis and assessment of well-known earthquakes, earthquake risk, bearing capacity of region disaster, essential information of earthquake, scope of disaster influencing, geological environmental security, carrying capacity of resource environmental, economical influence, social influence, and the benefit of disaster reduction are found to be the essential contents of assessment of earthquake disaster. The framework of the meta-synthesis assessment of earthquake disaster systems and the “men, machine, methods, techniques, data” based on meta-synthesis assessment system are constructed.

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