气候变化对菊地河环境流量成分和水温的影响评价

IF 4.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of ecohydraulics Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI:10.1080/24705357.2019.1663713
R. Morid, Y. Shimatani, Tatsuro Sato
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引用次数: 10

摘要

日本列岛从北向南延伸了很长一段距离,受到气候变化的影响。本研究的目的是利用水文指标来评估气候变化对环境成分的影响。采用HadGEM2-ES和MICRO5模式,考虑两种代表性浓度路径(RCP4.5和RCP8.5),初步预估了该地区未来气候变化的3个20年周期(2021-2040、2041-2060和2061-2080)。然后使用土壤和水评估工具模型对基线(1986-2016)和未来时期的菊池河进行了模拟。最后,利用水文变化指标(Indicators of Hydrologic蚀变)软件分析了极端流量的大小、持续时间、时间和频率。结果表明,两种模型下的放电均有所减小;然而,在HadGEM2-ES (RCP4.5)下,2041-2060年预计增加2 m3/s。河流流量的变化会影响水生生态系统的生境适宜性,如果考虑水温的影响,可能会产生进一步的影响。在我们的案例研究中,预计到2080年水温将上升4°C。这种现象将改变生境适宜性,因为重要的环境流量成分,如高流量峰值和大洪水频率也将增加。
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Impact assessment of climate change on environmental flow component and water temperature—Kikuchi River
Abstract The Japanese archipelago extends over a large distance from north to south exposed to the effects of climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on environmental components by using hydrological indicators. The future climate change in the region was initially projected using HadGEM2-ES and MICRO5 models in three 20-year periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080), considering two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5). The Kikuchi streamflow was then simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool modelling for the baseline (1986–2016) and future periods. Finally, the magnitude, duration, timing, and frequency of extreme flows were analysed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software. The results showed a decrease in discharge under both models; however, a 2 m3/s increase was predicted under HadGEM2-ES (RCP4.5) in 2041–2060. Changes in river flow affect habitat suitability in aquatic ecosystems, and might have further impacts if the effects of water temperature are also considered. In our case study, water temperature was predicted to increase by up to 4 °C by 2080. This phenomenon will change habitat suitability, because important environmental flow components, such as the peaks of high flows and large flood frequency, will also increase.
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