支持考虑社会目标的战略管理的生命周期模拟方法

Taro Kawaguchi, Shuhei Suzuki, Hidenori Murata, Hideki Kobayashi
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摘要

人们期望制造业公司做出的决策不仅要实现公司的目标,还要实现社会的目标。每个公司的决策都会影响其他公司的物资流动和需求。因此,每个公司都可以通过提前预测自己和其他公司的决策对实现社会目标的影响来发挥战略管理的作用。为了支持这种战略管理,本研究提出了一种生命周期模拟方法,可以通过考虑社会目标来估计战略决策的影响。目标是一个由多个产品生命周期系统和交互组成的连接生命周期系统(CoLSys),其中交互根据每个产品的生命周期系统进行操作。该方法包含一个决策模型,并在每个产品生命周期系统中更改交互设置,以实现预定义的社会和个人目标。为了证明所提出方法的有效性,对CoLSys公司的六个产品进行了案例研究:电动汽车、汽油汽车、混合动力汽车、家用电池、电池充电座和光伏发电系统。在案例研究中,社会目标是到2050年脱碳,个人目标是增加利润。仿真结果证实,该决策模型将导致更大的二氧化碳减排,包括从汽油车到电动汽车的更快过渡。此外,我们证实了决策模型有助于平衡社会目标的实现与个体系统的利益,同时调整相互作用的强度。然而,如果仅在案例研究中应用假设的产品和相互作用,则发现到2050年无法实现脱碳。
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Life Cycle Simulation Method to Support Strategic Management that Considers Social Goals
Manufacturing companies are expected to make decisions that achieve not only the goals of the company but also the goals of society. Each company’s decisions affect the material flow and demand of other companies. Therefore, each company can play a role in strategic management by predicting in advance the impact of its own and other companies’ decisions on the achievement of social goals. To support such strategic management, this study proposes a life cycle simulation method that can estimate the impact of strategic decisions by considering social goals. The target is a connected life cycle systems (CoLSys) consisting of multiple product life cycle systems and interactions, in which the interactions are operated according to the life cycle system of each product. A decision-making model is included in the proposed method, and changes in the interaction settings are made in each product life cycle system to achieve predefined social and individual goals. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study was conducted for a CoLSys consisting of six products: electric vehicles, gasoline vehicles, hybrid vehicles, home batteries, battery charging stands, and photovoltaic power generation systems. In the case study, the social goal was decarbonization by 2050 and the individual goal was increasing profits. The simulation results confirmed that the decision-making model would result in greater reductions in CO2 emissions, including a faster transition from gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles. Moreover, we confirmed that the decision-making model contributed to balancing the achievement of social goals with the benefits of individual systems while adjusting the intensity of the interactions. However, it was found that decarbonization cannot be achieved by 2050 if only the assumed products and interactions are applied in the case study.
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