基于场景聚类和潮流熵的配电网风电配置优化

Mingze Zhang, Yicheng Huang, Min Wang
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Introduction With the development of energy technology, it is imperative to connect renewable energy such as wind power to distribution network. However, due to the inherent uncertainty of wind power, it is bound to affect the stability of distribution network. Therefore, how to plan the access location of wind power in distribution network and the access capacity of wind power in each access location is very important [1,2]. Since the randomness of wind power output is strong, the randomness of wind power generation needs to be analyzed before planning and optimization. A probability distribution can be used to describe the randomness of variables comprehensively. Since the randomness of different meteorological variables is not the same, they must correspond to different theoretical distribution models. The results show that the wind speed probability distribution curve can be fitted by a statistical model. Common fitting models include Rayleigh model, log-normal distribution model, Gamma distribution model and two-parameter Weibull distribution model [3]. However, in the process of calculating the probability distribution function, parameter estimation is difficult. At the same time, the accuracy of the probability function is difficult to guarantee because of too many uncertain factors. Scenario analysis can exactly solve the above problems. The scenario set describes the probability of the possible occurrence of uncertain events in the future. Since the probability measure of random events can be observed, the scenario set can comprehensively reflect the occurrence of full probability scenarios [4,5]. Too many scenarios will result in too much computation. Therefore, the scene needs to be clustered. Fuzzy C Mean (FCM) is a classification based Fuzzy clustering method. By describing the membership of samples to different categories, this algorithm can objectively cluster, which can overcome the defects of traditional clustering algorithm of either/or, and occupies an important position in Fuzzy clustering [6]. Since the access of wind power will inevitably affect the power flow distribution of the system, the power flow distribution of the system also affects the stability of the system. Therefore, this paper proposes to use the power flow entropy index to quantify the power flow distribution of the system, and to analyze the optimal node and capacity of system access to wind power [7,8]. To sum up, in the process of selecting the location of the wind power distribution network and determining the node capacity, this paper firstly adopts the method of fuzzy C clustering to analyze the uncertain wind speed scenario. After obtaining the typical scenario, based on the theory of entropy, the flow entropy of the system which can quantitatively describe the imbalance of power flow of system is taken as the optimization index to optimize the access location of wind power and the access capacity of each location. Clustering of Scenarios Scenario Clustering based on Fuzzy C In practical engineering application, it is not difficult to find the development law of random events through many data statistical analysis. The continuous probability function is discretized into several samples by means of sampling discretization. Each sample is called a \"scenario\". The content of each scenario consists of two parts: the value of the random variable w and the probability p of the value. This method is called the scenario method for solving optimization problems involving random variables, so as to obtain the probability of random events in each possible situation. The greater the probability of the scenario, the greater the impact on the target event, thus forming the scenario analysis method. In order to obtain enough scene sets, many samples are needed, which leads to an exponential increase in the size of the final scene set, resulting in \"dimension disaster\", which is not conducive to analysis and calculation. Scene reduction is to use a more concise set of scenes to represent the original set of scenes, so scene reduction is also known as scene simplification. Therefore, this paper adopts fuzzy c-means algorithm to cluster renewable energy scenarios. The objective function of the fuzzy c-means is:","PeriodicalId":11369,"journal":{"name":"DEStech Transactions on Environment, Energy and Earth Science","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Optimization of Wind Power Configuration in Distribution Network Based on Scenario Clustering and Power Flow Entropy\",\"authors\":\"Mingze Zhang, Yicheng Huang, Min Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.12783/dteees/peems2019/34015\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"When the wind power is connected to the distribution network, the access points and the access capacity of each point in the distribution network will also affect the stability of the distribution network. Therefore, based on the fuzzy C clustering of wind speed, this paper optimizes the location and capacity of wind power in the distribution network by using the proposed entropy index of power flow which reflects the power flow equilibrium degree of the system. Firstly, typical wind speed and output scenarios are selected through scenario clustering, and then the flow entropy index reflecting system stability is adopted to optimize the location and capacity of wind power. The improved IEEE33 was used to verify the method. Introduction With the development of energy technology, it is imperative to connect renewable energy such as wind power to distribution network. However, due to the inherent uncertainty of wind power, it is bound to affect the stability of distribution network. Therefore, how to plan the access location of wind power in distribution network and the access capacity of wind power in each access location is very important [1,2]. Since the randomness of wind power output is strong, the randomness of wind power generation needs to be analyzed before planning and optimization. A probability distribution can be used to describe the randomness of variables comprehensively. Since the randomness of different meteorological variables is not the same, they must correspond to different theoretical distribution models. The results show that the wind speed probability distribution curve can be fitted by a statistical model. Common fitting models include Rayleigh model, log-normal distribution model, Gamma distribution model and two-parameter Weibull distribution model [3]. However, in the process of calculating the probability distribution function, parameter estimation is difficult. At the same time, the accuracy of the probability function is difficult to guarantee because of too many uncertain factors. Scenario analysis can exactly solve the above problems. The scenario set describes the probability of the possible occurrence of uncertain events in the future. Since the probability measure of random events can be observed, the scenario set can comprehensively reflect the occurrence of full probability scenarios [4,5]. Too many scenarios will result in too much computation. Therefore, the scene needs to be clustered. Fuzzy C Mean (FCM) is a classification based Fuzzy clustering method. By describing the membership of samples to different categories, this algorithm can objectively cluster, which can overcome the defects of traditional clustering algorithm of either/or, and occupies an important position in Fuzzy clustering [6]. Since the access of wind power will inevitably affect the power flow distribution of the system, the power flow distribution of the system also affects the stability of the system. Therefore, this paper proposes to use the power flow entropy index to quantify the power flow distribution of the system, and to analyze the optimal node and capacity of system access to wind power [7,8]. To sum up, in the process of selecting the location of the wind power distribution network and determining the node capacity, this paper firstly adopts the method of fuzzy C clustering to analyze the uncertain wind speed scenario. After obtaining the typical scenario, based on the theory of entropy, the flow entropy of the system which can quantitatively describe the imbalance of power flow of system is taken as the optimization index to optimize the access location of wind power and the access capacity of each location. Clustering of Scenarios Scenario Clustering based on Fuzzy C In practical engineering application, it is not difficult to find the development law of random events through many data statistical analysis. 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引用次数: 2

摘要

当风电接入配电网时,配电网中的接入点和各点的接入容量也会影响配电网的稳定性。因此,本文在风速模糊C聚类的基础上,利用提出的反映系统潮流均衡程度的潮流熵指标,对配电网中风电的位置和容量进行优化。首先通过场景聚类选择典型风速和输出场景,然后采用反映系统稳定性的流熵指标对风电的选址和容量进行优化。采用改进的IEEE33对方法进行验证。随着能源技术的发展,将风能等可再生能源接入配电网势在必行。然而,由于风电固有的不确定性,必然会影响配电网的稳定性。因此,如何规划风电在配电网中的接入位置以及各接入位置的风电接入容量是非常重要的[1,2]。由于风电输出的随机性较强,在规划优化之前需要对风电的随机性进行分析。概率分布可以用来全面地描述变量的随机性。由于不同气象变量的随机性不相同,它们必须对应不同的理论分布模型。结果表明,风速概率分布曲线可以用统计模型拟合。常用的拟合模型包括瑞利模型、对数正态分布模型、伽马分布模型和双参数威布尔分布模型[3]。然而,在计算概率分布函数的过程中,参数估计是一个难点。同时,由于不确定因素太多,难以保证概率函数的准确性。场景分析恰恰可以解决上述问题。情景集描述了未来不确定事件可能发生的概率。由于随机事件的概率测度是可以观测到的,所以场景集可以综合反映全概率场景的发生情况[4,5]。太多的场景将导致太多的计算。因此,需要对场景进行集群化。模糊均值(FCM)是一种基于分类的模糊聚类方法。该算法通过描述样本对不同类别的隶属度,实现了客观聚类,克服了传统非此即彼聚类算法的缺陷,在模糊聚类中占有重要地位[6]。由于风电的接入必然会影响到系统的潮流分布,因此系统的潮流分布也会影响到系统的稳定性。因此,本文提出利用潮流熵指标量化系统的潮流分布,分析系统接入风电的最优节点和容量[7,8]。综上所述,在风电配电网选址和节点容量确定过程中,本文首先采用模糊C聚类的方法对风速不确定场景进行分析。在获得典型场景后,基于熵理论,以能定量描述系统潮流不平衡的系统流熵作为优化指标,对风电的接入位置和各位置的接入容量进行优化。基于模糊C的场景聚类在实际工程应用中,通过对大量数据的统计分析,不难发现随机事件的发展规律。采用抽样离散化的方法,将连续概率函数离散成若干个样本。每个样本被称为一个“场景”。每个场景的内容由两部分组成:随机变量w的值和该值的概率p。这种方法被称为场景法,用于求解涉及随机变量的优化问题,以获得随机事件在每种可能情况下的概率。情景发生的概率越大,对目标事件的影响就越大,从而形成情景分析法。为了获得足够的场景集,需要大量的样本,导致最终场景集的规模呈指数级增长,产生“维数灾难”,不利于分析计算。场景还原就是用更简洁的一组场景来表示原来的一组场景,所以场景还原也被称为场景简化。因此,本文采用模糊c均值算法对可再生能源场景进行聚类。模糊c均值的目标函数为:
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Optimization of Wind Power Configuration in Distribution Network Based on Scenario Clustering and Power Flow Entropy
When the wind power is connected to the distribution network, the access points and the access capacity of each point in the distribution network will also affect the stability of the distribution network. Therefore, based on the fuzzy C clustering of wind speed, this paper optimizes the location and capacity of wind power in the distribution network by using the proposed entropy index of power flow which reflects the power flow equilibrium degree of the system. Firstly, typical wind speed and output scenarios are selected through scenario clustering, and then the flow entropy index reflecting system stability is adopted to optimize the location and capacity of wind power. The improved IEEE33 was used to verify the method. Introduction With the development of energy technology, it is imperative to connect renewable energy such as wind power to distribution network. However, due to the inherent uncertainty of wind power, it is bound to affect the stability of distribution network. Therefore, how to plan the access location of wind power in distribution network and the access capacity of wind power in each access location is very important [1,2]. Since the randomness of wind power output is strong, the randomness of wind power generation needs to be analyzed before planning and optimization. A probability distribution can be used to describe the randomness of variables comprehensively. Since the randomness of different meteorological variables is not the same, they must correspond to different theoretical distribution models. The results show that the wind speed probability distribution curve can be fitted by a statistical model. Common fitting models include Rayleigh model, log-normal distribution model, Gamma distribution model and two-parameter Weibull distribution model [3]. However, in the process of calculating the probability distribution function, parameter estimation is difficult. At the same time, the accuracy of the probability function is difficult to guarantee because of too many uncertain factors. Scenario analysis can exactly solve the above problems. The scenario set describes the probability of the possible occurrence of uncertain events in the future. Since the probability measure of random events can be observed, the scenario set can comprehensively reflect the occurrence of full probability scenarios [4,5]. Too many scenarios will result in too much computation. Therefore, the scene needs to be clustered. Fuzzy C Mean (FCM) is a classification based Fuzzy clustering method. By describing the membership of samples to different categories, this algorithm can objectively cluster, which can overcome the defects of traditional clustering algorithm of either/or, and occupies an important position in Fuzzy clustering [6]. Since the access of wind power will inevitably affect the power flow distribution of the system, the power flow distribution of the system also affects the stability of the system. Therefore, this paper proposes to use the power flow entropy index to quantify the power flow distribution of the system, and to analyze the optimal node and capacity of system access to wind power [7,8]. To sum up, in the process of selecting the location of the wind power distribution network and determining the node capacity, this paper firstly adopts the method of fuzzy C clustering to analyze the uncertain wind speed scenario. After obtaining the typical scenario, based on the theory of entropy, the flow entropy of the system which can quantitatively describe the imbalance of power flow of system is taken as the optimization index to optimize the access location of wind power and the access capacity of each location. Clustering of Scenarios Scenario Clustering based on Fuzzy C In practical engineering application, it is not difficult to find the development law of random events through many data statistical analysis. The continuous probability function is discretized into several samples by means of sampling discretization. Each sample is called a "scenario". The content of each scenario consists of two parts: the value of the random variable w and the probability p of the value. This method is called the scenario method for solving optimization problems involving random variables, so as to obtain the probability of random events in each possible situation. The greater the probability of the scenario, the greater the impact on the target event, thus forming the scenario analysis method. In order to obtain enough scene sets, many samples are needed, which leads to an exponential increase in the size of the final scene set, resulting in "dimension disaster", which is not conducive to analysis and calculation. Scene reduction is to use a more concise set of scenes to represent the original set of scenes, so scene reduction is also known as scene simplification. Therefore, this paper adopts fuzzy c-means algorithm to cluster renewable energy scenarios. The objective function of the fuzzy c-means is:
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