Zhiyong Fu, Anna Barbara, P. Scupelli, Yanru Lyu, Y. Cheng, S. Sul
{"title":"数据驱动的未来场景:基于社交媒体数据的智能家居服务体验预测","authors":"Zhiyong Fu, Anna Barbara, P. Scupelli, Yanru Lyu, Y. Cheng, S. Sul","doi":"10.3390/systems11060287","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Exploring future scenarios can consider future generations and society from a long-term perspective. A Futures Triangle is an approach used for mapping future scenarios. In general, the Futures Triangle collects weak signals using qualitative research methods. However, collecting weak signals qualitatively is limited by its small data size and manual data analysis errors. To overcome those limitations, this study proposes the data-driven futuristic scenario approach. This approach analyzes a large number of social perceptions existing in social networks as weak signals via semantic network analysis. Using our proposed data-driven approach, researchers can quantitatively collect weak signals for a Futures Triangle. To verify the applicability of the proposed method, we conducted a case study on the Chinese smart home service experience. The dataset consists of 2421 posts containing the keyword “smart home experience” on the Chinese social media platform Weibo. Three future scenarios were constructed using the proposed method. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The data-driven futuristic scenario approach has the advantage of quantitatively analyzing a large amount of stakeholder data to provide weak signals for the Futures Triangle. We suggest that the data-driven futuristic scenario approach serves as a supplementary method, combined with the traditional Futures Triangle approach, to comprehensively explore future scenarios.","PeriodicalId":52858,"journal":{"name":"syst mt`lyh","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Data-Driven Futuristic Scenarios: Smart Home Service Experience Foresight Based on Social Media Data\",\"authors\":\"Zhiyong Fu, Anna Barbara, P. Scupelli, Yanru Lyu, Y. Cheng, S. Sul\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/systems11060287\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Exploring future scenarios can consider future generations and society from a long-term perspective. A Futures Triangle is an approach used for mapping future scenarios. In general, the Futures Triangle collects weak signals using qualitative research methods. However, collecting weak signals qualitatively is limited by its small data size and manual data analysis errors. To overcome those limitations, this study proposes the data-driven futuristic scenario approach. This approach analyzes a large number of social perceptions existing in social networks as weak signals via semantic network analysis. Using our proposed data-driven approach, researchers can quantitatively collect weak signals for a Futures Triangle. To verify the applicability of the proposed method, we conducted a case study on the Chinese smart home service experience. The dataset consists of 2421 posts containing the keyword “smart home experience” on the Chinese social media platform Weibo. Three future scenarios were constructed using the proposed method. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The data-driven futuristic scenario approach has the advantage of quantitatively analyzing a large amount of stakeholder data to provide weak signals for the Futures Triangle. We suggest that the data-driven futuristic scenario approach serves as a supplementary method, combined with the traditional Futures Triangle approach, to comprehensively explore future scenarios.\",\"PeriodicalId\":52858,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"syst mt`lyh\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"syst mt`lyh\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11060287\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"syst mt`lyh","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11060287","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Data-Driven Futuristic Scenarios: Smart Home Service Experience Foresight Based on Social Media Data
Exploring future scenarios can consider future generations and society from a long-term perspective. A Futures Triangle is an approach used for mapping future scenarios. In general, the Futures Triangle collects weak signals using qualitative research methods. However, collecting weak signals qualitatively is limited by its small data size and manual data analysis errors. To overcome those limitations, this study proposes the data-driven futuristic scenario approach. This approach analyzes a large number of social perceptions existing in social networks as weak signals via semantic network analysis. Using our proposed data-driven approach, researchers can quantitatively collect weak signals for a Futures Triangle. To verify the applicability of the proposed method, we conducted a case study on the Chinese smart home service experience. The dataset consists of 2421 posts containing the keyword “smart home experience” on the Chinese social media platform Weibo. Three future scenarios were constructed using the proposed method. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. The data-driven futuristic scenario approach has the advantage of quantitatively analyzing a large amount of stakeholder data to provide weak signals for the Futures Triangle. We suggest that the data-driven futuristic scenario approach serves as a supplementary method, combined with the traditional Futures Triangle approach, to comprehensively explore future scenarios.