Katharina Heider, Thomas Weinzierl, N. Schwab, Maria Bobrowski, U. Schickhoff
{"title":"尼泊尔喜马拉雅山未来农业条件——基于高分辨率气候情景的模糊逻辑方法","authors":"Katharina Heider, Thomas Weinzierl, N. Schwab, Maria Bobrowski, U. Schickhoff","doi":"10.12854/ERDE-2018-382","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Until the end of the 21st century, ongoing climate change is expected to trigger major changes in site conditions and vertical species distributions in high mountain regions such as the Himalaya. Altitudinal ranges of species used as staple crops in Himalayan agriculture and currently suitable cultivation areas will be affected as well. Changing climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation will modify agricultural land-use options, and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach utilizes high resolution climate data of the present and two future scenarios and relates them to bioclimatic requirements of the five most important crops grown in Nepal: rice, maize, wheat, finger millet and potato. It takes into account soil pH as a basic constraint for the individual crop. The three factors temperature, precipitation,and soil pH are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable cultivation zones for the individual crops. The results show that wheat is likely to experience the most severe loss of crop suitability until the end of the 21st century, while the cultivation of rice is likely to benefit.","PeriodicalId":50505,"journal":{"name":"Erde","volume":"96 1","pages":"227-240"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2018-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future agricultural conditions in the Nepal himalaya-a fuzzy logic approach using high resolution climate scenarios\",\"authors\":\"Katharina Heider, Thomas Weinzierl, N. Schwab, Maria Bobrowski, U. Schickhoff\",\"doi\":\"10.12854/ERDE-2018-382\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Until the end of the 21st century, ongoing climate change is expected to trigger major changes in site conditions and vertical species distributions in high mountain regions such as the Himalaya. Altitudinal ranges of species used as staple crops in Himalayan agriculture and currently suitable cultivation areas will be affected as well. Changing climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation will modify agricultural land-use options, and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach utilizes high resolution climate data of the present and two future scenarios and relates them to bioclimatic requirements of the five most important crops grown in Nepal: rice, maize, wheat, finger millet and potato. It takes into account soil pH as a basic constraint for the individual crop. The three factors temperature, precipitation,and soil pH are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable cultivation zones for the individual crops. The results show that wheat is likely to experience the most severe loss of crop suitability until the end of the 21st century, while the cultivation of rice is likely to benefit.\",\"PeriodicalId\":50505,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Erde\",\"volume\":\"96 1\",\"pages\":\"227-240\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-12-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Erde\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.12854/ERDE-2018-382\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Erde","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.12854/ERDE-2018-382","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future agricultural conditions in the Nepal himalaya-a fuzzy logic approach using high resolution climate scenarios
Until the end of the 21st century, ongoing climate change is expected to trigger major changes in site conditions and vertical species distributions in high mountain regions such as the Himalaya. Altitudinal ranges of species used as staple crops in Himalayan agriculture and currently suitable cultivation areas will be affected as well. Changing climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation will modify agricultural land-use options, and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach utilizes high resolution climate data of the present and two future scenarios and relates them to bioclimatic requirements of the five most important crops grown in Nepal: rice, maize, wheat, finger millet and potato. It takes into account soil pH as a basic constraint for the individual crop. The three factors temperature, precipitation,and soil pH are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable cultivation zones for the individual crops. The results show that wheat is likely to experience the most severe loss of crop suitability until the end of the 21st century, while the cultivation of rice is likely to benefit.
期刊介绍:
DIE ERDE is a publication of the Geographical Society of Berlin
DIE ERDE is a scientific journal in Geography, with four issues per year with about 100 pages each. It covers all aspects of geographical research, focusing on both earth system studies and regional contributions.
DIE ERDE invites contributions from any subfield of both Physical and Human Geography as well as from neighbouring disciplines.