尼泊尔喜马拉雅山未来农业条件——基于高分辨率气候情景的模糊逻辑方法

IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Erde Pub Date : 2018-12-19 DOI:10.12854/ERDE-2018-382
Katharina Heider, Thomas Weinzierl, N. Schwab, Maria Bobrowski, U. Schickhoff
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引用次数: 4

摘要

到21世纪末,持续的气候变化预计将引发喜马拉雅等高山地区立地条件和垂直物种分布的重大变化。喜马拉雅地区农业中用作主要作物的物种的海拔范围和目前适宜的种植区域也将受到影响。不断变化的气候变量,如温度和降水,将改变农业土地利用的选择,对未来作物生长条件的评估需求很大。这种基于地理信息系统的方法利用当前和未来两种情景的高分辨率气候数据,并将其与尼泊尔种植的五种最重要作物(水稻、玉米、小麦、小米和土豆)的生物气候需求联系起来。它考虑到土壤pH值作为单个作物的基本约束。然后使用模糊逻辑算法将温度、降水和土壤pH这三个因素结合起来。该评估可视化地显示了个别作物适宜种植区的预期变化。结果表明,到21世纪末,小麦可能会经历最严重的作物适宜性丧失,而水稻的种植可能会受益。
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Future agricultural conditions in the Nepal himalaya-a fuzzy logic approach using high resolution climate scenarios
Until the end of the 21st century, ongoing climate change is expected to trigger major changes in site conditions and vertical species distributions in high mountain regions such as the Himalaya. Altitudinal ranges of species used as staple crops in Himalayan agriculture and currently suitable cultivation areas will be affected as well. Changing climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation will modify agricultural land-use options, and assessments of future crop growth conditions are in high demand. This GIS-based approach utilizes high resolution climate data of the present and two future scenarios and relates them to bioclimatic requirements of the five most important crops grown in Nepal: rice, maize, wheat, finger millet and potato. It takes into account soil pH as a basic constraint for the individual crop. The three factors  temperature, precipitation,and soil pH are then combined using a fuzzy logic algorithm. The assessment visualizes the expected shifts in suitable cultivation zones for the individual crops. The results show that wheat is likely to experience the most severe loss of crop suitability until the end of the 21st century, while the cultivation of rice is likely to benefit.
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来源期刊
Erde
Erde GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
6.20%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: DIE ERDE is a publication of the Geographical Society of Berlin DIE ERDE is a scientific journal in Geography, with four issues per year with about 100 pages each. It covers all aspects of geographical research, focusing on both earth system studies and regional contributions. DIE ERDE invites contributions from any subfield of both Physical and Human Geography as well as from neighbouring disciplines.
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