加纳石油区块财政制度的边界适用性

D. Ocran, E. Broni-Bediako, G. Ofori-Sarpong
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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要在油气投资决策中,财政制度的吸引力已经超过了该省的地质前景。财政制度所包含的条款和条件影响投资者对项目的评价。由于加纳决心从石油和天然气资源的开采中获得巨大利益,因此需要设计一个在所有经济和技术条件下都具有吸引力的强有力的财政制度。加纳最近在Jubilee油田深水Tano-Cape Three Point发现了商业碳氢化合物,成为石油和天然气行业的前沿之一。加纳的石油工业非常年轻,一些盆地正处于勘探监视之下,等待商业发现。加纳的Jubilee油田在其财政安排中使用各种条款和条件来管理上游业务。为了持续实现国家和承包商的经济利益,重要的是要评估加纳财政制度在不同油价和油田储量边界条件下的适用性。贴现现金流经济模型考虑了主要的不确定性,以评估朱比利油田财政制度的经济影响。通过严格的敏感性分析,选取了不同的价格情景和不同的场地规模。结果表明,在油价高于40美元/桶的情况下,所有规模的油田,承包商的净现值均为正。除了油价低于40美元/桶的情况下,政府的项目收益统计数据平均约为64%,承包商的项目收益统计数据平均约为36%,而政府的项目收益统计数据高于80%,承包商的项目收益统计数据低于20%。只有当油价高于40美元/桶时,国家才能获得额外的石油权益(AOE),并且AOE随着油价的稳定增长而稳步增长。总的来说,Jubilee油田的财政制度相当有吸引力和灵活,并确保随着油田利润的增加,国家和承包商之间经济租金的稳定份额。关键词:储备,财政制度,现金流量,统计,净现值
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Boundary Applicability of the Ghana’s Oil Block Fiscal Regimes
AbstractAttractiveness of fiscal regime has become more important in oil and gas investment decision than the rather geological prospectivity of the province. The terms and conditions contained in the fiscal system influence the investor’s evaluation of project. As Ghana determines to benefit greatly from the exploitation of the oil and gas resources, a robust fiscal system attractive in all economical and technical conditions needs to be designed. Ghana has recently become one of the frontiers in the oil and gas industry following its commercial discoveries of hydrocarbons in Deepwater Tano-Cape Three Point, the Jubilee field. Ghana’s oil industry is very young and some of the basins are under exploration surveillances waiting for commercial discoveries. Ghana’s Jubilee field uses various terms and conditions in her fiscal arrangement to govern the upstream operations. For continuous realisation of economic benefits to the State as well as the contractor, it is important the applicability of Ghana’s fiscal regime at varying boundary conditions of oil price and field reserves are evaluated. Discounted cash flow economic model which considers the major uncertainties was developed to evaluate the economic implications of the Jubilee field fiscal regime. Different price scenarios and varying field sizes were taken through rigorous sensitivity analysis. It was determined that for all field sizes considered at oil prices above $ 40/bbl, contractor’s NPVs are positive. The project take statistics are averagely around 64% for Government and 36% for contractor under the various scenarios except for oil prices less than $40/bbl where the State’s take statistic is above 80% and contractor’s take below 20%. The State receives Additional Oil Entitlement(AOE) only when the oil price is above $40/bbl and the AOE increases steadily with the oil price for all the various field sizes. In general, the Jubilee field fiscal regime is fairly attractive and flexible and ensures stable shares of economic rents between the State and the contractor as the profitability of the field increases. Keywords: Reserves, Fiscal Regime, Cash Flow, Take Statistics, Net Present Value
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