在Actor Pilgrim中建立混合仿真模型的特点

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Journal of Applied Mathematics & Informatics Pub Date : 2022-01-30 DOI:10.37791/2687-0649-2022-17-1-109-116
O. Bulygina, E. Vlasova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,模拟已被积极用于研究社会经济过程,以测试各种管理决策(用于分析风险,项目,区域流程,物流等)。今天,三个仿真系统(Actor Pilgrim, AnyLogic, GPSS World)在俄罗斯最为广泛,每个系统都有自己的应用领域。因此,系统Actor朝圣者是最适合建模的社会经济过程。该系统的第一个版本是由Alexander Anatolyevich Yemelyanov教授领导的一个小组在35年前开发的,用于解决“柔性自动化生产”方向的实验问题。它建立在行动者网络理论的基础上,是一种新的建模范式。向解决新问题的过渡,主要是在经济方面,导致需要通过实施时间、财政和空间动态来进一步发展其系统。目前,系统的开发是通过构建混合仿真模型来进行的,这与各种分析方法的引入有关。因此,当建模实际的技术和经济过程(例如,高科技产品的进口替代)时,建议使用人工智能方法,使您能够在信息不确定的条件下获得明智的决策。包括模糊逻辑方法和群算法(特别是细菌优化)在内的模型已经显示出良好的结果。例如,模糊逻辑方法通过对实施项目的企业内部和外部环境因素的详细分析,为可选项目分配“公平”的优先级。利用细菌优化算法寻找实施高技术产品进口替代项目的“有前景”区域。这些群算法的特点是能够同时研究有利因素和不利因素,即允许考虑各种风险情况。Actor Pilgrim的现代版本适用于系统分析师、经济学家、数学家和其他熟悉编程但不是专业程序员的专业人士。
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Features of building hybrid simulation models in Actor Pilgrim
In recent years, simulation has been actively used to study socio-economic processes in order to test various management decisions (for analyzing risks, projects, regional processes, logistics, etc.). Today, three simulation systems (Actor Pilgrim, AnyLogic, GPSS World), each of which has its own areas of application, are the most widespread in Russia. So, the system Actor Pilgrim is most suitable for modeling socio- economic processes. The first version of this system was developed by a group led by Professor Alexander Anatolyevich Yemelyanov more than 35 years ago to solve experimental problems in the direction of "Flexible automated production". It was based on a new modeling paradigm, which was built on the actor-network theory. The transition to solving new problems, primarily in the economics, led to the need for its further system development through the implementation of temporal, financial and spatial dynamics. Currently, the system development is carried out through the construction of hybrid simulation models, which is associated with the introduction of various analysis methods. So, when modeling actual technical and economic processes (for example, import substitution of high- tech products), it is proposed to use artificial intelligence methods that allow you to get informed decisions in conditions of information uncertainty. Models that include fuzzy logic methods and swarm algorithms (in particular, bacterial optimization) have shown good results. For example, fuzzy logic methods have been used to assign "fair" priorities to option projects through a detailed analysis of the factors of the internal and external environment of enterprises that will implement them. Bacterial optimization algorithms have been used to search for "promising" areas for the implementation of the projects of import substitution of high-tech products. These swarm algorithms are distinguished by the ability to simultaneously study favorable and negative factors, i. e. allow taking into account various risk situations. The modern version of Actor Pilgrim is intended for systems analysts, economists-mathematicians and other professionals who are familiar with programming, but are not professional programmers.
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