哈萨克斯坦和中国能源合作的最相关因素和趋势,重点是可再生能源(RES)

Aidana Chalgynabayeva, Attila Bai
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摘要

本文分析了良好的政治法律环境、互惠互利的战略政策、经济发展和增长水平、优越的地理条件和文化融合程度是影响哈中能源合作的重要因素。本文利用上述要点,参考相关的贸易和投资理论,分为1998-2014年时间序列数据哈萨克斯坦对中国能源产品的出口和1998-2016年时间序列数据中国对哈萨克斯坦能源部门的投资两个方面,构建向量自回归模型(VAR)。选取相关变量和数据,从贸易和投资的角度构建计量经济模型,对哈中能源合作的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,中国对大市场和对外开放的需求以及哈萨克斯坦巨大的能源潜力是两国合作的最重要因素。可以说,目前哈萨克斯坦的立法适合促进中国的能源投资,但从长远来看,这将有利于调动国家资本,特别是在可再生能源投资和研究方面。最后,我们发现电力和热能(包括化石能源和可再生能源)竞争力中最重要的储备是电网整合和短期内的废热利用。凝胶代码:f14;Q43
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most relevant factors and trends in energy cooperation between Kazakhstan and China, focused on renewable energy sources (RES)
This paper analyses the good political and legal environments, mutually beneficial strategic policy, along with level of economic development and growth, superior geographical conditions and cultural integration degree of the important effecting factors of the energy cooperation between Kazakhstan and China. By using the main points listed above this article refers to related trade and investment theories, and it’s divided into two aspects: Kazakhstan's export of Chinese energy products with time series data 1998-2014 and China's investment in Kazakhstan's energy sector with time series data 1998-2016 to construct the vector autoregressive model (VAR).We selected relevant variables and data to construct an econometric model from the perspectives of trade and investment to make an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of energy cooperation between Kazakhstan and China. Our results show that China's demand for large-scale market and for opening to the outside world as well as Kazakhstan’s great energy potential are the most important factors their cooperation. It can be stated that in our days Kazakh legislation is suitable for promoting the Chinese energy investments, but in the long run it would be beneficial to mobilize national capital especially in RES investments and research. In the end, we found the most important reserves in competitiveness of electricity and heat (both from fossil and renewable energy sources) are power grid consolidation and waste heat utilization in the short run. JEL CODE: F14; Q43
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