Runoff controls the development of eco-hydrological and economic conditions in an arid oasis of the downstream inland river basin

Abstract Oasis degradation and terminal lake shrinkage are prevalent consequences of the disputed distribution of water resources in inland river basins, hindering regional sustainable development. The Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP) is regarded as an important measure to restore the desert-oasis ecosystem in inland river basins, and thus it is essential to comprehensively evaluate the response of eco-hydrological and socioeconomic systems to the EWDP. Based on multiple indicators, we used trend analysis, linear regression, partial least square regression, and structural equation model to disentangle the quantitative effects of the EWDP on the change of eco-hydrological and socioeconomic conditions in the Ejina Oasis (EO) in the lower reaches of the Heihe River in northwest China. Our results indicate that the ecological deterioration was prevalent before the execution of the EWDP, including the increase of groundwater depth, the disappearance of lakes, the decrease of NDVI. After the EWDP, runoff released to EO increased 69.15%, the mean groundwater depth decreased 0.48 m, 52.28% of the study area showed a significant increase in NDVI, areas of forest and grassland increased 20.17 and 25.65 km2, respectively. The EWDP improved the hydrological regime and prompted the recovery of the oasis. Besides, socioeconomic development was facilitated under the restoration of the eco-hydrological conditions, characterized by the expansion of farmland and the thrive of the tourism industry. The hydrological variables promoted the improvement of the ecological condition with a direct strength of 0.93 and facilitated the development of the socioeconomic conditions in EO with an indirect strength of 0.84. Runoff was the most important positive contributor both to the NDVI and GDP in EO. This comprehensive evaluation framework can offer valuable insight for water resources management and sustainable development in the inland river basin of arid areas.