分时电价实验中费率结构效应与回归参数不稳定性

Robert H. Patrick
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引用次数: 23

摘要

利用11个分时电价(TOU)定价实验的数据池,估计了消费者需求模型,并对这些实验中的费率结构参数不稳定性进行了简单但统计准确的测试。在分析中考虑的费率结构影响涉及各自价格收取的时间长度(在需求周期中)、中间定价期、需求与能源费用以及自愿与强制参与。研究发现,定价周期长短和能源收费对电价结构影响显著,而其他费率结构影响的显著性则参差不齐。在许多情况下,参数不稳定性的假设在实验中被接受,但随着时间的推移而被拒绝。
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Rate structure effects and regression parameter instability across time-of-use electricity pricing experiments

Using a pool of data from eleven time-of-use (TOU) pricing experiments, a consumer demand model is estimated, and simple but statistically exact tests are performed for rate structure parameter instability across these experiments. Rate structure effects considered in the analyses concern the length of time (during the demand cycle) that the respective prices are charged, intermediate pricing periods, demand versus energy charges, and voluntary versus mandatory participation. Pricing period length and energy charges are found to have significant effects but the significance of others rate structure effects are generally mixed. The hypotheses of parameter instability are accepted, in a number of cases, across experiments but rejected through time.

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