黎巴嫩经济结构粘性价格模型中的商业周期和货币政策分析

Jennifer Challita
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摘要

为了界定和重塑黎巴嫩经济的特征和特征,本文构建了一个中等规模的结构模型。结构模型的特点是采用名义利率平滑的泰勒货币政策规则设计。包括泰勒规则帮助我们分析每个变量对不同货币政策冲击的响应函数(Frish, 1933)。因此,本文的结果显示了变化系数如何影响模型中变量的标准差,如通货膨胀率、名义利率和产出GAP (Orphanides and Simon van Norden, 1999)。更准确地说,假设货币当局的意图是减少上述三个变量的波动性,在移动系数时检测模型的性能。因此,我们的研究结果证明,对通胀偏差的响应系数、产出GAP系数-fi系数和名义利率系数略大于欧元区实证工作报告的系数1。因此,这些结果在某种程度上反映了黎巴嫩中央银行以一定的响应性来执行其货币政策,此外,研究结果确保黎巴嫩中央银行关于名义利率设定的实际行为被泰勒规则很好地捕获,包括最初提出的系数。
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Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Analysis in a Structural Sticky Price Model of the Lebanese Economy
A medium-size structural model is built in this article in order to de fi ne and reshape the Lebanese economy characteristics and features. However, the structural model is featured by a Taylor monetary policy rule design with nominal interest smoothing. Including the Taylor rule helped us to analyze the response function of each variables to different monetary policy shocks (Frish, 1933). Hence, the results of this paper showed how changing coef fi cients may in fl uence the standard deviations of variables in the model as such the in fl ation rate, the nominal interest rate and the output GAP (Orphanides and Simon van Norden, 1999). More precisely, the performance of the model is detected while moving the coef fi cients assuming that monetary authorities ’ intention is to reduce volatility in the three mentioned variables. Consequently, our fi ndings proved that the coef fi cient of responsiveness to in fl ation deviations, the output GAP coef-fi cient and the nominal interest rate coef fi cient are little bit larger than the ones reported in empirical works for the Euro area 1 . Therefore, these results re fl ect in some way that the Lebanese Central bank conduct its monetary policy with some responsiveness, in addition, fi ndings ensure that actual behavior of the Lebanese central bank regarding the nominal interest rate setting is well captured by a Taylor rule including the initial proposed coef fi cients.
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