减少灾害风险的气候脆弱性评估:来自巴基斯坦的见解

IF 0.7 4区 管理学 Q4 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI:10.1515/jhsem-2021-0046
Hafiz Waqar Abbas, Xuesong Guo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在全球范围内,气候相关灾害(CRDs)在过去几十年中已成为一种普遍现象,增加了脆弱性并造成了灾害死亡率。为了管理灾害风险,全球仙台减少灾害风险框架(SFDRR)为减少灾害风险(DRR)提供了一个坚实的行动计划,考虑到脆弱性的所有方面。然而,各国在地方一级对采用SFDRR的接受程度仍然较低。此外,全球研究界也没有在仙台框架的基础上探索漏洞特征,也没有将这些特征与SFDRR的四个优先事项相结合。本研究以巴基斯坦为例,力求通过三个目标来弥合这一差距。研究的第一个目标是识别SFDRR中引用的漏洞特征。此外,本研究旨在整合SFDRR的四个优先级,建立一个新的漏洞模型。第二个目标是制定一个决策支持框架,以便在当地条件下对SFDRR的每个优先行动领域进行排名和评估。第三个目标是评估气候导致的环境、社会经济和政治脆弱性对气候导致的死亡率的影响。为了满足这三个不同的目标,作者采用了多准则决策分析(MCDA)和二元逻辑回归方法(BLRM)的多方法方法。在此基础上,作者提出了一些政策建议。
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Climate-Related Vulnerability Assessment Toward Disaster Risk Reduction: Insight from Pakistan
Abstract Globally, climate-related disasters (CRDs) have become a common phenomenon in the last few decades, increasing vulnerability and causing disaster mortality. To manage disaster risk, the global Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction (SFDRR) provides a solid action plan for disaster risk reduction (DRR) considering all the dimensions of vulnerability. However, countries are still less receptive at the local level to adopting the SFDRR. Also, the global research community did not explore vulnerability features based on the Sendai Framework nor integrated such features with the four priorities of SFDRR. Based on the case of Pakistan, this study seeks to bridge the gap through three objectives. The first objective of the study is to identify the vulnerability features cited in the SFDRR. In addition, the research aims to develop a new vulnerability model by integrating SFDRR’s four priorities. As a second objective, it is intended to develop a decision support framework for ranking and evaluating each of the SFDRR priority action areas under local conditions. A third objective is to assess the impact of climate-induced environmental, socioeconomic and political vulnerabilities on climate-driven mortality. To meet these three different objectives, the authors have adopted a multi-method approach by using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and binary logistic regression method (BLRM). Based on the assessment, the authors suggested some policy implications.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
12.50%
发文量
11
期刊介绍: The Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management publishes original, innovative, and timely articles describing research or practice in the fields of homeland security and emergency management. JHSEM publishes not only peer-reviewed articles, but also news and communiqués from researchers and practitioners, and book/media reviews. Content comes from a broad array of authors representing many professions, including emergency management, engineering, political science and policy, decision science, and health and medicine, as well as from emergency management and homeland security practitioners.
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