Ukraine Crisis and Shifting Sands in North Africa

Located in northwest Africa, Western Sahara was under Spanish occupation from 1884–1975. Some of the world’s richest fishing waters can be found in Western Sahara. It also holds one of the world’s most extensive phosphates reserves. Since 1975, Morocco has been de facto governing over 80% of the land known as the Moroccan Sahara. Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, has been fighting for the independent Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). Despite an UN-mediated ceasefire in 1991 for a referendum for self-determination and the presence of Mission for the Organization of a Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) to oversee the process, the referendum never took place. In December 2020, President Trump recognized Moroccan claim over Western Sahara in exchange for a normalization deal between Morocco and Israel. While President Biden’s administration now appears to support Trump’s policy tacitly, the Ukraine crisis has provided Algeria with a fresh opportunity. Algeria is Europe’s biggest gas exporter in Africa. Moreover, it is also a strong ally of Russia. As Spain backed Morocco’s proposition to create an autonomous Western Sahara territory under Moroccan control, this change of position will undoubtedly disturb the North-African diplomatic equilibrium, and the implications could be dangerous.