直觉决策

IF 4 4区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS Mit Sloan Management Review Pub Date : 2007-01-01 DOI:10.4135/9781452276090.n139
Kurt Matzler, Franz Bailom, Todd A. Mooradian
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引用次数: 39

摘要

高管们是否应该根据自己的直觉做出决策?告诉他们吗?最近,这个想法失去了一些青睐,作为技术?S积累和分析数据的能力迅速提高?根据一些说法,取代高级经理?我们需要依靠直觉。但直觉需要从它的批评者那里得到一些拯救,首先要澄清它到底是什么,以及应该如何发展它。直觉不是神奇的第六感,也不是超自然的过程;它也不表示理性或随机和异想天开的决策的对立面。相反,直觉是一种高度复杂和高度发达的推理形式,它基于多年的经验和学习,以及存储在一起的事实、模式、概念、过程和抽象。年代的头。在这篇文章中,作者引用了国际象棋、神经科学和商业领域的例子。特别是奥地利?KTM运动摩托车股份有限公司?为了表明直觉决策不应该过早地被埋没。他们指出,虽然对直觉的研究还没有作为管理科学的一部分进行广泛的探索,但研究表明,有几个因素对直觉至关重要。S开发:多年的特定领域经验;个人和职业网络的培养;情商的发展;宽容:对错误的容忍;健康的好奇心;直觉呢?年代的限制。当然,公司应该继续利用它们挖掘数据的能力,作为获得竞争优势的一种手段。但他们应该这么做吗?我们不能忽视经验丰富的高管的持续价值,他们可以在数字给出问题而不是答案时,依靠直觉做出决策:现在我们该怎么办?
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Intuitive Decision Making
Should executives make decisions based on what their ?gut? tells them? Lately that idea has lost some favor, as technology?s ability to accumulate and analyze data has rapidly increased ? supplanting, according to some accounts, the high-level manager?s need to draw heavily on intuition. But intuition needs some rescuing from its detractors, and the place to start is by clarifying what it really is, and how it should be developed. Intuition is not a magical sixth sense or a paranormal process; nor does it signify the opposite of reason or random and whimsical decision making. Rather, intuition is a highly complex and highly developed form of reasoning that is based on years of experience and learning, and on facts, patterns, concepts, procedures and abstractions stored in one?s head. In this article, the authors draw on examples from the worlds of chess, neuroscience and business ? especially Austria?s KTM Sportmotorcycle AG ? to show that intuitive decision making should not be prematurely buried. They point out that although the study of intuition has not been extensively explored as a part of management science, studies reveal that several ingredients are critical to intuition?s development: years of domain-specific experience; the cultivation of personal and professional networks; the development of emotional intelligence; a tolerance for mistakes; a healthy sense of curiosity; and a sense of intuition?s limits. Companies should, of course, continue to exploit their abilities to mine data as a means of obtaining a competitive edge. But they shouldn?t overlook the continuing value of experienced executives who can draw on their intuition to make decisions when the numbers yield a question rather than an answer: Now what do we do?
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