Water level decline at Iran's Lake Urmia: changing population dynamics

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of decreasing the water level of Lake Urmia on migration and geographical distribution of the population in the eastern coastal settlements in Northwestern Iran. Initially, we considered the migration statistics from 2006 and 2016, compiled by the National Statistics Office. Then, by using kernel density estimation in ARC GIS, we examined the geographical distribution of the population. Findings of this study show that between 2006 and 2016, about 71.85% of the migrants in the province were from the villages around the lake, which caused the complete evacuation of 53 villages and a sharp decline in population in a number of other villages. While 28.42% of it was related to the other settlements in the province. Also, the results of the density estimation function show that, from 2006 to 2018, most of these villages lost their population, and most of the people are now inhabited in the suburbs of the central cities. It has led to an imbalance in the distribution of population, facilities, etc. The decline in the water level of the lake and the resulting fine dust has played an important role in reducing employment in the agricultural sector and, ultimately, led to reduced rural-urban migration. It seems that with the intensification of the consequences of climate change in Iran and the expansion of the water crisis in the country, the migration crisis around Lake Urmia, by generating socio-economic costs, will be a major challenge for development in this region.