来自丹麦仔猪的波兰育肥猪:波兰养猪业的失控转型

IF 0.9 Q4 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.30858/zer-166114
Jakub Olipra
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引用次数: 0

摘要

仅在20年前,波兰在生猪生产上是自给自足的,是欧洲生猪市场的主要参与者之一。从那时起,波兰在生猪肥育和肉类加工方面的专业化程度不断提高,而国内仔猪产量却有所下降。因此,波兰已经失去了养猪生产的自给自足能力,严重依赖进口仔猪,主要来自丹麦。本文的目的是总结波兰养猪业的演变,并具体说明波兰进口丹麦仔猪的主要决定因素。使用矢量误差修正模型(VECM)的估计结果表明,波兰从丹麦进口仔猪的数量可以用波兰在生猪肥育方面的专业化程度、生猪周期阶段和波兰猪肉的竞争力来解释。该结果可能有助于了解波兰养猪业的演变及其对仔猪进口的日益依赖。
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Polish Finishers from Danish Piglets: Uncontrolled Transformation of Pig Industry in Poland
Abstract Only 20 years ago, Poland was self-sufficient in pig production, being one of the key players in the Euro- pean pig market. Since then a growing specialization of Poland in pig finishing and meat processing has been observed, while the domestic production of piglets has declined. As a consequence, Poland has lost its self-sufficiency in pig production and become strongly dependent on imports of piglets, mainly from Denmark. The aim of this paper is to summarize the evolution of the Polish pig industry and specify the main determinants of the Polish imports of Danish piglets. The results of the estimates using the vector error correction model (VECM) show that the volume of the Polish imports of piglets from Denmark may be explained by a degree of specialization of Poland in pig finishing, the phase of pig cycle, and the competitiveness of Polish pork. The results may be helpful in understanding the evolution of the Polish pig industry and its growing dependence on imports of piglets.
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