复杂裂缝性碳酸盐岩与深海浊积岩的综合地质建模与集合历史拟合,用集合方法生成若干地质相干解

A. Abadpour, Moyosore Adejare, T. Chugunova, H. Mathieu, N. Haller
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引用次数: 9

摘要

历史油藏模型拟合一直是一项繁琐的工作,因为它涉及许多不确定参数,需要多次反复试验。通常所引入的修正似乎是人为的,可能会破坏地质概念,只得到一个匹配的模型,而这种模型的预测可能很快被新的数据所推翻。最终,不完美的模型会导致不完美的决策。在过去的十年中,集成方法的辅助历史匹配得到了广泛的关注。在该方法中,对所有不确定模型参数与选定生产数据之间的相关性进行评估,并利用这种相关性对模型的集成进行修改,以迭代的方式减少模拟数据与真实历史数据之间的差异。集成方法在连续高斯参数上表现良好,但其在离散地质参数(如相和岩石类型)上的应用多年来一直面临挑战。针对这一问题提出的不同解决方案显示了集成工作流和实现与地理建模工具密切相关的辅助历史匹配循环的重要性。经过几年的研究,道达尔公司通过地质建模集成平台Sismage-CIG开发了一种基于集成方法的辅助历史匹配工具。该工具已于2016年初工业化,并在中东的一个大型气田进行了首次操作研究。众所周知,集成方法对模型的大小、要处理的不确定参数的数量、井的数量和历史数据的长度相对不敏感,但要使该工具在具有大量井的巨大复杂油田上运行,需要使用最先进的算法方法进行几轮代码优化。该工具在浊积岩、深水、复杂裂缝型碳酸盐岩油田等多种模式下均表现出色。最新的历史匹配研究使用该方法在中东油田进行,该油田的网格包含2000万个单元,大约200口井,超过25年的生产历史,每个实现中涉及超过1.3亿个不确定参数。将辅助历史匹配与集成方法相结合,不仅可以以连贯的方式考虑细胞间的异质性作为不确定性,而且还可以提供数百个匹配模型的集成,这为预测和决策过程创造了巨大的机会。此外,所有模型都充分尊重地质先验知识,历史匹配研究的持续时间大大缩短(几周而不是几个月,如果不是几年),使用的人力也少得多。
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Integrated Geo-Modeling and Ensemble History Matching of Complex Fractured Carbonate and Deep Offshore Turbidite Fields, Generation of Several Geologically Coherent Solutions Using Ensemble Methods
History matching reservoir models has always been tedious as it involves many uncertain parameters and requires many trial and error iterations. Frequently the modifications introduced seem artificial and may destroy geological concepts, only one matched model is obtained and the forecast of such a model may quickly be invalidated by new data. Eventually imperfect models lead to imperfect decisions. Assisted History matching with ensemble methods has received a lot of attention in the past decade. In this methodology with an ensemble of models the correlation between all uncertain model parameters and the selected production data is assessed and using this correlation the ensemble of the models are modified to reduce the difference between simulated and real historical data in an iterative manner. Ensemble methods are recognized to perfectly perform on the continuous Gaussian parameters, but their application on discrete geological parameters like facies and rock types has been a challenge for several years. Different solutions proposed to tackle this issue showed the importance of integrated workflows and the implementation of an assisted history matching loop in close relationship with the geo-modeling tools. After several years of research, an assisted history matching tool based on ensemble method has been developed in Total via the integrated platform of geo-modelling Sismage-CIG. This tool has been industrialized early 2016 with the first operational study performed on a giant gas field in the Middle-East. Ensemble methods are known to be relatively insensitive to the size of the model, number of uncertain parameters to be handled, number of wells and the length of historical data, but the industrialization of the tool to operate on huge complex fields with very large number of the wells needed several rounds of code optimization using state of art algorithmic approaches. This tool showed outstanding performance on several types of models such as turbiditic deep-offshore and complex fractured carbonate fields. The latest history matching study performed with this method on a Middle-East field modeled with a grid containing 20 million cells, around 200 wells and more than 25 years of production history, involved more than 130 million uncertain parameters in each realization. The use of assisted history matching with ensemble methods allows not only to take into account cell by cell heterogeneities as uncertainty in a coherent manner but it also delivers an ensemble of hundred matched models which creates a huge opportunity for forecast and decision making process. Moreover all models fully respect the geological a priori knowledge and the duration of history matching study has been drastically reduced (weeks instead of months if not years) using much less manpower.
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