Key issues influencing the future internationalization of higher education: the case of Thailand

Purpose The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade prompted a decision to use a futurist perspective for identifying issues to be considered in the organization’s next strategic plan. This paper aims to report on this project to identify current and strategic issues influencing the future strategy of the higher education (HE) IZN for Thailand on behalf of the Bureau of International Cooperation Strategy and the Office of the Higher Education Commission. Design/methodology/approach The research approach was a customized version of the University of Houston’s Framework Foresight method. It involved framing the domain with a description and domain map, scanning for signals of change within the domain and emerging issues analysis to produce a set of current and emerging issues. A planning step synthesizes a set of recommended actions. Findings The key findings reported in this paper are the identification of 14 current and emerging issues influencing the future of the IZN of HE in Thailand. The issues were organized along with the three horizons framework: H1: how are we [currently] doing? H2: what should we do next and H3, where do we want to go? The primary recommendation of this research reported on in this study is to consider the 14 issues for inclusion into the next strategic plan. Seven specific strategic options mapped over three phases were identified as well. The research reported here was carried out for Thailand, but the process could easily be adapted by other countries and other topics. Research limitations/implications The modified version of the University of Houston Framework Foresight approach has been applied successfully to many topics. The topic explored here is focused on one nation, Thailand. The authors feel the lessons are, however, broadly applicable. Practical implications The ability to use a futurist perspective to identify current and emerging issues is highlighted. The organizing of the issues using the three horizons framework proved to be particularly useful in helping the client to develop a sense of timing regarding the future, that is, when and to what degree to pay attention to the many issues that typically confront any organization. Originality/value The use of the three horizons framework in the analysis of the emerging issues provide benefits in two ways in situating the likely timing of signals of change in horizon scanning and “scan hits” both scanning for the identification of issues and organizing the resulting current and emerging issues along the three horizons with H1 current issues: how are we [currently] doing?; H2 emerging issues: what should we do next and H3 emerging issues, where do we want to go? The paper also includes a section exploring the impact of Covid-19 on the likely timing of the issues identified just before the pandemic hit, finding that timing of some issues would speed up, some would stay the same and some would slow down.