Stability analysis of an old earth Samarkand Dam in Kazakhstan under rapid drawdown conditions

Despite being potential historical sites, old embankment dams are subjected to many stability challenges due to many factors, including a lack of sufficient stability assessment tools by the time the dam was built and changes in embankment material properties induced by natural and human activities. Therefore, with the current advancement in technology is of great importance to investigate the state of old embankment dams under different potential loading conditions. The stability challenges become of more significant concern when the embankment is subjected to a rapid drawdown loading scenario. In this study, the Samarkand dam located in Karaganda province in Kazakhstan which was put into operation in 1941 is investigated in terms of seepage and slope stability with the help of numerical modelling. Both steady and transient (rapid drawdown) flow conditions are taken into consideration. e finite element method-based modelling is achieved using SEEP/W and SLOPE/W of the GeoStudio software. From the analysis results, it was observed that the old dam can be subjected to a potential failure under rapid drawdown conditions as the minimum factor of safety values were decreasing with the increase in the drawdown rates. For instance, the minimum factor of safety from the instantaneous drawdown rate was equivalent to 32.85% less than the factor of safety retrieved from the long-term steady-state conditions. Also, from Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), a p-value of 9.97× 10-29 was obtained after subjecting the factor of safety values from instantaneous, 5 days, 10 days, and 1 m per day drawdown rates to ANOVA, indicating that the factor of safety differences among the analyzed drawdown rates were statistically significant.