中国可再生能源发展趋势的数值与模型分析

Hao Wu, Lingwei Zheng
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摘要

目前,清洁低碳能源已成为各国的发展趋势。特别是在中国,以煤炭为主的能源结构在保障国家社会经济发展的同时,也造成了严重的生态破坏,能源转型迫在眉睫。发展可再生能源是能源转型的重要选择。本文运用数学模型对中国能源的整体发展趋势进行了计算,然后运用钻石模型对可再生能源产业的宏观环境进行了分析,明确了可再生能源产业面临的基础和挑战,从而为宏观政策的制定和产业的发展提供参考。钻石模型通过产业的四个因素,即生产因素、需求条件、配套产业和同行竞争,另外还有机会和政府两个因素进行综合分析。利用钻石模型对可再生能源产业进行分析,主要是分析其生产能力、市场需求、与传统能源的竞争以及政策的优劣。图1显示了菱形模型。图1所示。钻石模型。2018年,中国一次能源消费总量为46.4亿标准煤,其中电力占终端能源消费比重为25.5%。非化石能源占企业战略、结构和横向竞争相关及配套产业生产要素需求条件机遇
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Numerical and Model Analysis of the Development Trend of Renewable Energy in China
At present, the clean and low-carbon energy has become the development trend of all countries. Especially in China, the coal based energy structure not only guarantees the social and economic development of the country, but also causes serious ecological damage, so the energy transformation is imminent. The development of renewable energy is an important choice for energy transformation. This paper uses mathematical model to calculate the overall development trend of China's energy, and then uses diamond model to analyze the macro environment for renewable energy industry, to clarify the basis and challenges for renewable energy industry, so as to provide reference for the formulation of macro policies and industrial. Introduction Diamond model through four factors of industry, namely production factors, demand conditions, supporting industries and peer competition, in addition, there are opportunities and government two factors for comprehensive analysis. Using diamond model to analyze renewable energy industry is to analyze the production capacity, market demand, competition with traditional energy and advantages and disadvantages of policy. The diamond model is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Diamond model. Overall Situation of China's Energy Development Overall Situation of Energy Structure In 2018, China's primary energy consumption totaled 4.64 billion standard coal (tce) with electric power accounting for 25.5% of the terminal energy consumption [1] . Non fossil energy accounts for Enterprise strategy, structure and horizontal competition Related and supporting industries production factors Demand conditions Opportuni ty
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