Journal of Generic Medicines – Editorial September 2021

Many industry observers are now taking this opportunity to communicate their view of the future. IQVIA anticipates the spending on all medicines will grow at 3–6% through to 2025 reaching a total global market of $1600 billion. This includes Covid vaccine sales of $157 billion. Developing countries will grow in double-digits led by Russia, Pakistan, Vietnam, India, Brazil, China and faster than most developed countries. Oncology and immunology medicines are also expected to grow in double digits as a result of better access and new treatments. Indeed, the number of New Active Substances (NAS) introductions is expected to be above normal at around 60 per year. The International Generic and Biosimilar Medicines Association have published their vision of the future and assessed today’s value of the global generic Industry at $390 billion. Generic medicines represent a 60–80% share of all the medicines consumed in many key countries with an even higher share of 90% in the USA and India. More importantly, the disease burden on patients in India and Africa has now dropped by more than 35% over the last 25 years though access to generic medicines. Another research company has projected that the global generic industry will reach $508 billion by 2026. The small molecule segment will reach $325 billion alongside the biosimilar segment at $183 billion. The two largest generic markets are expected to be the USA at $116 billion and China at $91billion. Astonishingly, the UK government has ignored the generic medicines industry in its new 10-year strategy for the life sciences sector whilst every day it depends on the industry for its daily supply of medicines to pharmacies, hospitals and doctor surgeries in the UK. In the last quarter, some Asian generic companies showed encouraging prescription trends. The generic prescriptions in the USA market filled by the Indian Pharmaceutical companies showed a 6% year on year growth (excluding vaccines). Meanwhile several western generic companies fell short of their historical 2020 results and seem to be facing competitive challenges with the USA pricing erosion remaining high in the mid-single digits. On Covid, one of the vaccine challenges has been to determine if the third booster vaccination will be needed just once or every year. Many generic companies have been in-licensing Covid vaccines and treatments from around the world. One generic company has even negotiated five separate licences for covid treatments including the mabs, the nibs and the virs. The Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients market is expected to be driven by high potency molecules in the future, but is currently facing a significant rise in raw material costs. In addition, packaging costs have doubled and the freight costs from China have tripled. As a consequence, the number of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients imported into India from China are reducing. Furthermore, product discontinuations resulting from trace nitrosamines have continued in South Korea and Canada with the antismoking medicines. In this issue, we continue with our global footprint of manuscripts with contributions from USA, Nigeria, Australia, Iraq, India, and France.