奇异谱分析识别过度降雨

Sisti Nadia Amalia, S. Saragih, Zul Amry
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引用次数: 0

摘要

印度尼西亚以雨量过多而闻名。一个地区的降雨趋势有不同的特征。纬度的差异、太阳的视运动、地理位置、地形以及多种形式的空气循环的相互作用都是造成这种现象的原因。降雨时间序列对工程规划至关重要,尤其是水利基础设施,如灌溉、水坝、城市排水、港口和码头。虽然气象技术提供了短期降雨预测,但长期降雨预测是困难的,而且充满了不确定性。不可预测性和季节性会导致降雨时间序列的复杂行为。本研究利用奇异谱分析方法提取趋势;季节性、骑自行车的人和噪音都可以被识别出来,而且可能具有很高的准确性。
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Singular Spectrum Analysis to Identify Excessive Rainfall
Indonesia is known for its excessive rainfall. Rainfall trends in an area have different characteristics. Differences in latitude, apparent motion of the sun, geographical position, topography, and the interaction of many forms of air circulation all contribute to this. Rainfall time series is essential for engineering planning, particularly for water infrastructure like irrigation, dams, urban drainage, ports, and wharves. Although meteorological technologies provide short-term rainfall predictions, long-term rainfall prediction is difficult and fraught with uncertainty. Unpredictability and seasonality can cause complex behavior in rainfall time series. This research utilizes the Singular Spectrum Analysis approach to extract trends; seasonality, cyclists, and noise can all be identified with potentially high accuracy.
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