市场环境及ＣＯ２ 排放政策变化下的发电投资决策: Generation investment decision-making at the change of electricity market and CO2 emission policy

In order to reveal the effects of CO emission policy and some other uncertain factors in the operation process on the investment decision-making of thermal power plants, a mathematical model considering the variations of the uncertain factors is established, and a new methodological framework of generation investment decision-ma-king is developed based on the option game theory. Then, on the assumption that the generation investment in diffe-rent generation companies are performed sequentially, a solution based on the Barraquand-Martineau (B-M) option pricing model is presented. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation. Numerical results indicate that the proposed framework well considers multiple uncertain factors and simulates the dynamic game process of thermal power plants in the planning period in stochastically-varied market environments.