{"title":"监视一系列发行版中的变更点","authors":"Lajos Horváth, P. Kokoszka, Shixuan Wang","doi":"10.1214/20-aos2036","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We propose a method for the detection of a change point in a sequence $\\{F_i\\}$ of distributions, which are available through a large number of observations at each $i \\geq 1$. Under the null hypothesis, the distributions $F_i$ are equal. Under the alternative hypothesis, there is a change point $i^* > 1$, such that $F_i = G$ for $i \\geq i^*$ and some unknown distribution $G$, which is not equal to $F_1$. The change point, if it exists, is unknown, and the distributions before and after the potential change point are unknown. The decision about the existence of a change point is made sequentially, as new data arrive. At each time $i$, the count of observations, $N$, can increase to infinity. The detection procedure is based on a weighted version of the Wasserstein distance. Its asymptotic and finite sample validity is established. Its performance is illustrated by an application to returns on stocks in the S&P 500 index.","PeriodicalId":22375,"journal":{"name":"The Annals of Statistics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Monitoring for a change point in a sequence of distributions\",\"authors\":\"Lajos Horváth, P. Kokoszka, Shixuan Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1214/20-aos2036\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We propose a method for the detection of a change point in a sequence $\\\\{F_i\\\\}$ of distributions, which are available through a large number of observations at each $i \\\\geq 1$. Under the null hypothesis, the distributions $F_i$ are equal. Under the alternative hypothesis, there is a change point $i^* > 1$, such that $F_i = G$ for $i \\\\geq i^*$ and some unknown distribution $G$, which is not equal to $F_1$. The change point, if it exists, is unknown, and the distributions before and after the potential change point are unknown. The decision about the existence of a change point is made sequentially, as new data arrive. At each time $i$, the count of observations, $N$, can increase to infinity. The detection procedure is based on a weighted version of the Wasserstein distance. Its asymptotic and finite sample validity is established. Its performance is illustrated by an application to returns on stocks in the S&P 500 index.\",\"PeriodicalId\":22375,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The Annals of Statistics\",\"volume\":\"21 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The Annals of Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1214/20-aos2036\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Annals of Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1214/20-aos2036","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Monitoring for a change point in a sequence of distributions
We propose a method for the detection of a change point in a sequence $\{F_i\}$ of distributions, which are available through a large number of observations at each $i \geq 1$. Under the null hypothesis, the distributions $F_i$ are equal. Under the alternative hypothesis, there is a change point $i^* > 1$, such that $F_i = G$ for $i \geq i^*$ and some unknown distribution $G$, which is not equal to $F_1$. The change point, if it exists, is unknown, and the distributions before and after the potential change point are unknown. The decision about the existence of a change point is made sequentially, as new data arrive. At each time $i$, the count of observations, $N$, can increase to infinity. The detection procedure is based on a weighted version of the Wasserstein distance. Its asymptotic and finite sample validity is established. Its performance is illustrated by an application to returns on stocks in the S&P 500 index.