Fertility

Sub-Saharan Africa’s exceptionally slow fertility decline has been explained by both weak economic development and an unusually pro-natal culture. Yet these explanations are both too simple. SSA has shown a “stall” in its fertility decline despite recent improvements in infant mortality, education, and urbanization. Its response to development has thus been different from other developing regions. At the same time, within SSA women with higher income, living in cities, and with more education exhibit lower fertility. Thus fertility is not culturally impervious to socio-economic gains. We present a path analysis of how various modernization factors affect fertility in SSA vs. other developing regions. We find that SSA is different. Cultural family patterns in SSA render gains in income, urbanization, and women’s paid employment ineffective in reducing fertility. Women’s education is more effective in lowering fertility than in other regions; but SSA lags far behind other regions in educating its women. Center for the Study of Social Change, Institutions, and Policy Working paper No. 2-2018