身高和死亡率的难题。

G. Smith
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For example, they describe a study by Liao andcolleagues as finding no relation between height and heart disease and a studyby Okasha et al as finding no association between height and all-causemortality. \n \nIt is unclear, however, why such studies, which find no association betweenheight and an outcome, support their claim that “larger body sizeindependently reduces longevity.” Also puzzling is why Samarasand Elrick cite these particular studies out of the body of literature onheight and health. When considered in total, this literature indicates that aconsistent inverse association exists between height and all-causemortality in developed countries. This inverse association has consistentlybeen found in prospective studies that appropriately analyze data fromrepresentative population samples. \n \nSamaras and Elrick cite one study from our research group (Okasha et al.)as showing no association between height and all-cause mortality. The resultsof the study, in fact, showed an inverse association, although this was notstatistically significant at conventional levels. They fail to cite studieswith greater statistical power in which we showed robust inverse associationsbetween height and all-causemortality.1,2Rather than carry out a systematic review of population-based prospectiveepidemiologic studies, they refer to unrepresentative (and sometimes basicallyuninterpretable) data derived from their own previous reviews (Samaras andElrick and Miller). \n \nWhat is a sensible conclusion to draw from the literature on height andmortality? In developed countries, taller people have lower all-causemortality rates and live longer. 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引用次数: 8

摘要

萨马拉斯和埃尔里克重申了他们在其他地方提出的观点,即动物和人类的数据表明,体型越大,预期寿命越短。他们的说法充满信心,可能会让读者认为这是基于明确而一致的证据,证明身高和死亡率之间存在正相关。然而,即使他们引用的证据也不支持这种联系。例如,他们描述廖及其同事的一项研究发现身高与心脏病之间没有关系,而Okasha等人的一项研究发现身高与全因死亡率之间没有联系。然而,目前还不清楚,为什么这些研究没有发现身高和结果之间的联系,却支持他们的说法,即“体型越大,寿命越短”。同样令人困惑的是,为什么萨马拉斯和埃里克引用了这些关于身高和健康的文献之外的特定研究。总的来说,这些文献表明,在发达国家,身高与全因死亡率之间存在一致的负相关关系。这种反向关联在前瞻性研究中一直被发现,这些研究适当地分析了代表性人群样本的数据。萨马拉斯和埃尔里克引用了我们研究小组(Okasha等人)的一项研究,表明身高和全因死亡率之间没有联系。事实上,研究结果显示出负相关关系,尽管在常规水平上没有统计学意义。他们没有引用具有更大统计力的研究,在这些研究中,我们显示了身高和全因死亡率之间存在着强有力的负相关关系。1,2他们没有对基于人群的前瞻性流行病学研究进行系统的回顾,而是引用了他们自己以前的回顾(Samaras、elrick和Miller)中得出的不具代表性(有时基本上是不可解释的)的数据。从文献中得出的关于身高和死亡率的合理结论是什么?在发达国家,高个子的人全因死亡率较低,寿命更长。然而,身高与特定原因导致的死亡率之间的关系是不一致的,高个子的人死于与吸烟无关的癌症和动脉瘤的死亡率更高身高和某些癌症之间的联系可能反映了婴儿和儿童成长过程中较高的卡路里摄入量,在各种动物模型中,这已被证明会增加晚年患癌症的风险。胰岛素样生长因子可能介导这种关联身高与主动脉瘤风险之间的正相关可能仅仅反映了身高与主动脉长度之间的力学相关性。或者,它可能表明一种类似马凡氏综合征的倾向,在高个子中更常见。但至少在发达国家,身高与冠心病、中风和呼吸系统疾病导致的死亡率呈负相关,远远抵消了这些正相关。这种反向关联不能归因于反向因果关系,即晚年疾病导致加速萎缩和死亡风险增加。在成年早期测量的身高,在任何收缩发生之前,与心肺死亡风险呈负相关身高高于平均水平是一个良好的童年社会环境的指标,而早年的生活剥夺与死于冠心病、中风和呼吸系统疾病的更高风险有关。更高的身材也与更好的肺功能有关(至少部分是纯粹的机械原因),这可能对某些死因有保护作用。关于身高和特定病因死亡率之间的联系机制,我们还有很多需要了解的。要获得更深入的理解,就需要阅读和解释文献本身,而不是选择性地引用那些支持我们已经认定为正确的假设的“事实”。萨马拉斯和埃尔里克的评论具有误导性。更好的做法是,利用已确立的原则,对前瞻性研究进行系统审查,在这些研究中,在可定义的人群中测量身高,并前瞻性地收集死亡率数据。
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The conundrum of height and mortality.
Samaras and Elrick reiterate a claim they have made else-where—thatanimal and human data show that greater body size is related to shorter lifeexpectancy. The confidence of their claim could lead readers to think that itis based on clear and consistent evidence of a positive association betweenheight and mortality rates. Even the evidence they cite, however, does notsupport this association. For example, they describe a study by Liao andcolleagues as finding no relation between height and heart disease and a studyby Okasha et al as finding no association between height and all-causemortality. It is unclear, however, why such studies, which find no association betweenheight and an outcome, support their claim that “larger body sizeindependently reduces longevity.” Also puzzling is why Samarasand Elrick cite these particular studies out of the body of literature onheight and health. When considered in total, this literature indicates that aconsistent inverse association exists between height and all-causemortality in developed countries. This inverse association has consistentlybeen found in prospective studies that appropriately analyze data fromrepresentative population samples. Samaras and Elrick cite one study from our research group (Okasha et al.)as showing no association between height and all-cause mortality. The resultsof the study, in fact, showed an inverse association, although this was notstatistically significant at conventional levels. They fail to cite studieswith greater statistical power in which we showed robust inverse associationsbetween height and all-causemortality.1,2Rather than carry out a systematic review of population-based prospectiveepidemiologic studies, they refer to unrepresentative (and sometimes basicallyuninterpretable) data derived from their own previous reviews (Samaras andElrick and Miller). What is a sensible conclusion to draw from the literature on height andmortality? In developed countries, taller people have lower all-causemortality rates and live longer. The association between height and mortalityfrom specific causes, however, is heterogeneous, with taller people havinghigher mortality rates from cancers that are unrelated tosmoking3 and fromaorticaneurysm.4 The association between height and some cancers may reflect higher levelsof calorie intake during growth in infancy and childhood, which has been shownto increase later-life cancer risk in a variety of animal models. Insulin-likegrowth factors may mediate thisassociation.5 Thepositive association between height and risk of aortic aneurysm may simplyreflect the mechanical correlation of height and aortic length. Alternatively,it could indicate a Marfan syndrome-like tendency, being more common in tallerpeople. But these positive associations are more than counter-balanced by theinverse associations between height and mortality resulting from coronaryheart disease, stroke, and respiratorydisease,1,2at least in developed countries. Such inverse associations are notattributable to reverse causation, ie, illness in later life leading toaccelerated shrinkage and also increased mortality risk. Height measured inearly adulthood, before any shrinkage occurs, is inversely related tocardiorespiratory mortalityrisk.4 Being tallerthan average is an indicator of favorable childhood social circumstances, andearly-life deprivation is related to a higher risk of mortality from coronaryheart disease, stroke, and respiratory disease. Greater stature is alsorelated to better lung function (at least in part for purely mechanicalreasons), which may be protective against some causes of death. There is much to learn about the mechanisms linking height andcause-specific mortality. Gaining greater understanding requires reading andinterpreting the literature as it is, rather than selectively citing the“facts” that support the hypothesis we have already decided istrue. The review by Samaras and Elrick is misleading. A better contributionwould be to conduct, using well-established principles, a systematic review ofprospective studies in which height was measured in definable populations andmortality data were collected prospectively.
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