基于经验模态分解和残差预测的SVM-LSTM混合温度预测模型

Wenqiang Peng, Qingjian Ni
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引用次数: 3

摘要

天气预报是人工智能领域的热点之一。本文针对最高气温和最低气温这两个重要气象指标,提出了基于历史数据的三种新的气温预报模型。第一个模型是构建SVM模型来预测LSTM模型的残差,然后将两个模型的预测结果相加,得到最终的预测结果。第二种模型是利用经验模态分解(EMD)对原始数据进行分解,然后利用组合预测模型对子序列进行预测,最后对预测结果进行总结。第三种模式是结合第一种和第二种模式的优点。首先,利用EMD对原始序列进行分解。然后,使用第一个模型来预测每个子序列。最后,对所有子序列的预测值进行叠加,得到最终预测值。本文以华盛顿和洛杉矶的温度数据为基础,对这三种模型进行了验证和分析。实验结果表明,本文提出的基于EMD和残差预测SVM-LSTM模型的第三种模型比其他模型具有更好的预测精度。
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A Hybrid SVM-LSTM Temperature Prediction Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Residual Prediction
Weather prediction is one of the hot topics in artificial intelligence. In this paper, three new temperature prediction models based on historical data are proposed for two important meteorological indexes, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. The first model is to construct SVM model to predict the residual error of LSTM model, then add the prediction results of the two models to get the final prediction result. The second model is to use empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to decompose the original data, then use the combination forecasting model to predict the subsequences, and finally summarize the prediction results. The third model is to combine the advantages of the first and second models. First, EMD is used to decompose the original sequence. Then, the first model is used to predict each subsequence. Finally, the predicted values of all subsequences are superimposed to obtain the final predicted value. Based on the temperature data of Washington and Los Angeles, the three models are tested and analyzed in this paper. The experimental results show that the third model proposed in this paper, which is based on EMD and residual prediction SVM-LSTM model, has better prediction accuracy than other models.
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