鸡肉供需的两阶段最小二乘联立方程分析

Respuestas Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI:10.22463/0122820x.1908
Giovanni Orlando Cancino Escalante, S. Cancino, Daniel Francisco Cancino Ricketts
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摘要

鸡肉生产是哥伦比亚发展最快的产业之一,人均消费量为35.6公斤。由于需求的增加以及鸡肉生产对哥伦比亚经济的重要性日益增加,本研究的目的是使用联立方程的两阶段最小二乘技术来估计鸡肉的需求和供应响应以及短期弹性。结果表明,鸡肉需求对自身和牛肉价格以及收入的变化有响应。除猪肉价格外,各自变量的走势与预期一致。发现鸡肉供给对自身价格变化的响应在短期内是无弹性的。鸡饲料和汇率弹性对鸡肉供给量百分比变化影响不大。所提出的模型对生产者、鸡肉公司管理者和政策制定者都很有用,因为了解影响鸡肉市场的因素可以导致最佳的管理和财务决策
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Two-stage least squares simultaneous equation analysis of the demand and supply of chicken meat
Abstract Chicken meat production is one of the fastest growing industries in Colombia with an average per person consumption of 35.6 kg. Due to the increase in demand and to the growing importance of the chicken meat production to the Colombian economy the objective of the study was to estimate the demand and supply response and the short run elasticities for chicken meat using a two-stage least squares technique for simultaneous equations. Results indicated that chicken meat demand was responsive to changes in own and beef prices as well as income. The direction of the independent variables were as expected, with the exception of pork prices. The response of chicken meat supply to own-price changes was found to be inelastic in the short run. Chicken feed and the exchange rate elasticities did not present a great impact on the percentage changes of the quantity offered of chicken meat. The proposed model can be useful for producers, chicken meat companies managers and policymakers as understanding the factors that affect the chicken market can lead to optimal managerial and financial decisions
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