中国广东省电能替代影响因素分解分析

IF 1.7 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS IET Cyber-Physical Systems: Theory and Applications Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI:10.1049/cps2.12069
Haobo Chen, Shangyu Liu, Yaoqiu Kuang, Tonghe Wang, Jie Shu, Zetao Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

电能替代是减少污染物排放、促进可再生能源消费的有效措施。目前的研究缺乏对区域电能替代影响因素的定量分析方法。本文提出了基于对数均值分位数指数法的电能替代影响因素分解模型,以拓展电能替代的深度和广度。结果表明(1)广东省宏观层面的电能替代稳步发展,2006-2020 年期间替代电量共计 1694.93×108 kWh。其中,生产领域的电能替代量占总量的 83.92%,远高于生活领域。(2) 劳动生产率的持续提高对 2006-2020 年期间生产部门电能替代量的增加贡献最大 (3592.32 × 108 千瓦时)。生活水平效应(452.21 × 108 kWh)对 2006-2020 年期间家庭部门电力替代的增加贡献最大。电气化水平效应和人口效应对电能替代发展有显著影响,而产业结构对电能替代影响较小。(3)能源强度效应和能源消费增长效应对广东省电能替代产生负面影响。生产部门能源强度的下降带动了电能替代量的下降,2006-2020 年期间,生产部门对电能替代的贡献为-2540.36×108 千瓦时。不断推动电能替代技术的突破、提高具有替代潜力行业的电气化率、完善化石能源与电能的价格机制等政策影响,可促进电能替代的深化发展和碳中和目标的实现。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Decomposition analysis on factors affecting electricity substitution in Guangdong province, China

Electricity substitution is an effective measure for reducing pollutant emissions and promoting the consumption of renewable energy. The current research lacks a quantitative analysis method for the factors affecting regional electricity substitution. This article proposes a decomposition model of the factors affecting electricity substitution based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method to expand the depth and breadth of electricity substitution. Results show that: (1) Macro-level electricity substitution in Guangdong province develops steadily, with 1694.93 × 108 kWh of total electricity substitution quantity during the period 2006–2020. The electricity substitution quantity in production sector accounts for 83.92% of the total, which is much larger than that in household sector. (2) Sustained improvement of labour productivity gives the largest contribution (3592.32 × 108 kWh) to the increase of electricity substitution in production sector during the period 2006–2020. Living standard effect has the largest contribution (452.21 × 108 kWh) to the increase of electricity substitution in household sector during the period 2006–2020. Electrification level effect and population effect have significant impact on electricity substitution development, while industrial structure has little impact on electricity substitution. (3) Energy intensity effect and energy consumption growth effect negatively influence electricity substitution in Guangdong province. The decline of energy intensity in the production sector has driven the decrease of electricity substitution quantity, contributing −2540.36 × 108 kWh to electricity substitution during the period 2006–2020. Policy implications like continuously promoting breakthroughs in electricity substitution technologies, improvement of electrification rate in the sectors with potential for substitution, and improvement the price mechanism for fossil fuels and electricity can promote the deepening development of electricity substitution and the realisation of the carbon neutrality goal.

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来源期刊
IET Cyber-Physical Systems: Theory and Applications
IET Cyber-Physical Systems: Theory and Applications Computer Science-Computer Networks and Communications
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
6.70%
发文量
17
审稿时长
19 weeks
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