Mikkel B. Lykkegaard, T. Dodwell, C. Fox, Grigorios Mingas, Robert Scheichl
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We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel MCMC approach of Dodwell et al. (2015) in terms of the Delayed Acceptance (DA) MCMC of Christen&Fox (2005). In particular, DA is extended to use a hierarchy of models of arbitrary depth, and allow subchains of arbitrary length. We show that the algorithm satisfies detailed balance, hence is ergodic for the target distribution. Furthermore, multilevel variance reduction is derived that exploits the multiple levels and subchains, and an adaptive multilevel correction to coarse-level biases is developed. Three numerical examples of Bayesian inverse problems are presented that demonstrate the advantages of these novel methods. The software and examples are available in PyMC3.
期刊介绍:
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (JUQ) publishes research articles presenting significant mathematical, statistical, algorithmic, and application advances in uncertainty quantification, defined as the interface of complex modeling of processes and data, especially characterizations of the uncertainties inherent in the use of such models. The journal also focuses on related fields such as sensitivity analysis, model validation, model calibration, data assimilation, and code verification. The journal also solicits papers describing new ideas that could lead to significant progress in methodology for uncertainty quantification as well as review articles on particular aspects. The journal is dedicated to nurturing synergistic interactions between the mathematical, statistical, computational, and applications communities involved in uncertainty quantification and related areas. JUQ is jointly offered by SIAM and the American Statistical Association.